SALT LAKE CITY — One win, one to go to advance to the Midwest regional in Kansas City.
Auburn (27-9) won its tournament opener in Salt Lake City in dramatic fashion against New Mexico State. The next test will be much tougher and much more storied. Kansas (26-9) is one of college basketball's most historically-renowned programs. Saturday night will be an opportunity for Auburn to prove it belongs. The two teams will tip off in Vivint Smarthome Arena at 8:40 p.m. CT. The winner of that matchup will face the winner of North Carolina-Washington in the Sweet 16 next Friday.
Here are the five storylines to follow heading into Auburn-Kansas.
1. Energized to play a blue blood for the Auburn program's sake
Bruce Pearl finds motivation tactics wherever he can.
For Kansas, it was easy.
Kansas is one of the universally-accepted college basketball blue bloods. The Jayhawks have three national championships, 15 Final Four appearances and 24 trips to the Elite Eight. Relevant to the Saturday matchup between Auburn and Kansas, the Jayhawks have participated in 31 Sweet 16s, including the last three seasons when they reached the Elite Eight.
Believe this: Pearl has recounted this storied Kansas history to his own players.
"They've been in the Sweet 16 about 31 times. We've been there four times," Samir Doughty said. "From that standpoint, we're definitely underdogs."
Close to the opposite end of the spectrum sits Auburn basketball.
But the Tigers are on the verge of turning a corner.
Auburn has only advanced to the Sweet 16 four times in program history, most recently in 2003. Tigers players know they're rarely expected to accomplish something of such magnitude. That's an underdog mindset this team has embraced during the 2018-19 season. Remarkably, Auburn is actually favored by most sports books headed into the Round of 32 matchup.
Still, looking at the programs on the whole, the Tigers are aware of their status compared to the Jayhawks.
"It definitely is big to try to help our own program's history. Now it's about making our own kind of history," Jared Harper said. "It's a great opportunity for us to prove our relevance as a program. I feel like we're a great team. I feel like a lot of people still don't know how good we are. The game against Kansas will be a perfect opportunity to show what we are."
Pearl regularly reminds people his players were under-recruited.
Only Austin Wiley and Chuma Okeke received recruiting attention from Bill Self out of high school. He had his sights set on McDonald's All-Americans more than undersized guards or big men still working to develop their game.
Despite being one of the two recruited by Kansas, Wiley sees this as an opportunity at validation for choosing Auburn. And a chance to establish a more proven basketball culture on the Plains.
"It definitely is exciting knowing how big this would be for Auburn and the program and its history," Wiley said.
2. Containing Kansas forward Dedric Lawson
If you didn't read this story Friday, it details the childhood AAU relationship between Chuma Okeke and Kansas forward Dedric Lawson. That will be a matchup to watch, especially early in the game before Kansas goes with its small-ball lineup.
Even when Okeke isn't on Lawson, finding ways to counteract the national player of the year contender will be the difference between a Sweet 16 appearance and a Round of 32 exit.
"It's going to determine what wins and loses the game. That's a big emphasis," Wiley said. "We got manhandled [Thursday], so we have to man up and be better on the boards."
Here's a Lawson scout from Pearl:
"He's a tough cover. When he plays the 4, he is very, very powerful and will overwhelm you. Most teams, it's hard to switch on him and things like that. When he plays the 5, he's a mismatch because he can score inside and out. He's a great guy to have as a number to have a play call for. You can have a play-call for him on the inside. Nobody does a better job than Bill Self of finding ways and angles to get his post really good touches. Our guys got into major foul trouble against New Mexico State. New Mexico State's bigs are good. Kansas' are even better. That's going to be a real challenge for us."
Here's a Lawson evaluation from his former childhood teammate Okeke:
"He’s got real nice touch around the basket. He can shoot if from 3. He’s just real good at moving and getting to open spots and is always in the right spot at the right time. Good at using his body. So, yeah, it should be good."
Here's a Lawson scout from Auburn center Anfernee McLemore:
"I think he’s very patient with the ball. He doesn’t rush anything. They say he’s got the old man game because he doesn’t do anything very fast; everything’s methodical and he kind of thinks out everything he does. Our thing is to try to make it tough for him, make him try to engage his dribble a little bit earlier than he wants to and try to double-team him and make him uncomfortable down there in the post."
Wiley, McLemore, Okeke and Horace Spencer will be a rotating cast of defenders against Lawson. All of them were relatively coy about how Auburn intends to game plan around him.
But the Tigers seem to think they have a plan in place to, at the very least, contain him.
"We definitely got a game plan for them to kind of limit his touches," McLemore said.
3. Fatigue no longer a factor
Bryce Brown knew exactly what he was going to do after Friday's media session.
"Going to sleep," Brown said, laughing.
It's been a storyline all week: Auburn has been tired.
The Tigers attributed some of the sluggish late-game moments against New Mexico State to that fatigue. Questions have arisen about whether it was the Salt Lake City elevation or Auburn's five-game-in-eight-days schedule that wore on the Tigers. Likely, it's been a combination of both.
Auburn says it has fully acclimated itself to the Utah air conditions.
With the final tip-off time Saturday, it has give the Tigers more than enough time to rest up prior to the Kansas game.
"Fatigue will not be a factor on Saturday. I think the fact we played early Thursday and now later on Saturday, we'll be fine. Five games in eight days, four in a row, all the adrenaline of winning a championship in Nashville, winning the SEC Tournament championship, travel out here, that was hard a little bit," Pearl said. "Now that we've been on the ground for a couple days, the kids will have their legs, and we're going to need all of them."
Those feelings are shared by Pearl's players.
Harper and Brown especially have had to play a high volume of minutes this season. Brown's slow shooting start and Harper's sloppy finish against New Mexico State were likely direct results of overuse and exhaustion.
When Brown saw the late tip time against Kansas, he enjoyed a sigh of relief. He's used to playing a lot of games in a short window dating back to AAU. But as age has caught up to him, so too has fatigue.
"It was definitely a relief. I like early games, but actually having those five games in eight days and getting that late game was definitely a relief for us," Brown said. "The difference is age then, you didn’t feel it. Now you feel that. You can’t play those three games in a day any more. I feel like those five games in eight days is more challenging than those AAU games because, as a kid, you’re happy. You want to do that. Now it takes a toll on your body."
4. Determined to advanced further than last season
Horace Spencer remembers last season.
The loss to Clemson in the Round of 32 stung.
But he could also, somewhat, see it coming.
"I feel like we were happy to make the tournament and were satisfied with what we did [last year]," Spencer said earlier this week. "I don’t want to be satisfied with winning one game like last year. I want to keep winning. I want to go all the way through."
In this round last season, Auburn — who escaped a loss to College of Charleston — was dismantled by Clemson. Bruce Pearl & Co. were one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament. To some extent, that was a win for a program that hadn't even made the Big Dance in the 15 years prior.
That's not the mindset this season.
A loss, in the minds of the players, would be considered a disappointment — even against a blue blood of Kansas' caliber.
"We’ve put it behind us because we knew that wasn’t us last year. We didn’t have the depth, we don’t have the guys we have this year due to eligibility, injuries. I was banged up. I had the shoulder and foot injury. Didn’t have Anfernee, Danjel, Austin. Horace was our only 5 man. So, I mean, it was a struggle. We knew we were kinda hanging on by our last straw at that point," Brown said. "We're in a much better feeling as a team confidence-wise and depth-wise."
In fact, the only objectives that matter are clear.
"The goal is the Final Four and a national championship, so we're just going to keep building off these wins," Wiley said.
5. Statistical storylines to follow
• Kansas has the 12th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. The Jayhawks rank 29th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. That combination makes Kansas one of the more complete teams in America.
• Per KenPom, Kansas plays at an even faster pace than Auburn.
• 53.4 percent of Kansas' points come from 2-point range.
• KenPom slotted Kansas as the team with the No. 1 strength of schedule in all of college basketball.
• In KenPom's player of the year algorithm, Kanas forward Dedric Lawson is listed at the eighth-best player in the country.
• All five players who started for Kansas against Northeastern were making their NCAA debut.
• KenPom gives Auburn a 53 percent chance of winning and predicts a 75-74 victory for the Tigers.