Postseason play has arrived.
Auburn (22-9, 11-7 SEC) heads to Nashville for its first SEC Tournament game. The Tigers will face off against Missouri (15-16, 6-13 SEC) who beat Georgia by 10 points in the No. 12 seed vs. No. 13 seed matchup on Wednesday night. As the No. 5 seed, an Auburn win would move the Tigers onto the quarterfinals to play No. 4 South Carolina.
Here are the storylines to follow heading into that matchup.
1. Auburn knows its recent SEC Tournament history
As a proven Auburn basketball historian, Bruce Pearl knows what the recent records indicate.
"You know how big I am on spouting off our history, particularly when it's good. I own that," Bruce Pearl said, smiling. "We haven't won a game there since 2015, my first year, so I own that too. We've been one-and-done three-straight years. It's not good. So that's not the kind of history I want to make."
There's still a sour taste from last year's conference conclusion.
Auburn fell to its biggest rival Alabama in convincing fashion, which helped sneak the Crimson Tide into the NCAA Tournament to boot. That defeat came with much higher expectations than the previous two seasons. The two years prior, Auburn lost its SEC Tournament openers to Missouri in overtime and Tennessee by nearly 40.
Here's how Pearl diagnosed those three-straight conference tournament letdowns:
Tennessee: "Tennessee just waxed us in that game. We were point-guardless. Cimeon Bowers was played the six. I refused to call him the one, the point guard, so we just truly created a new position and we called it the six. Because he wanted to be the one the whole time he was here. Acted like the one. But I wouldn’t call him the one so I called him the six.
Missouri: "And then, yeah, that Missouri loss, that was one of the worst losses we’ve had. We had a lead late, a couple of tough calls and a couple tough plays, and it was Kim Anderson’s last game, and that game may have cost us the NIT. Still sore about it."
Alabama: "We played an Alabama team that had just beaten Texas A&M—a team that got to the Sweet Sixteen—a Texas A&M team that got to the Sweet Sixteen with some pros. And of course they had Collin Sexton, and Collin Sexton is a pretty good player in the NBA right now. He kind of took over in the second half. So, I guess those would be the reasons."
Pearl isn't the only one who recognizes this recent history.
Anfernee McLemore pointed out what this three-loss streak means for the team. It's felt throughout the Tigers locker room.
"Nobody on the team right now has won a tournament game in the SEC, so definitely, we’re going to go there knowing we’re not done yet," McLemore said. "It’s unfinished business, like we say all the time, and that we can go there and win and hopefully make some noise because we have a pretty good bracket in terms of teams that we have lined up. If we can take care of the first, second and third game, then we feel like we can do pretty well."
2. Tigers feel healthier this time around
Pearl oozes confidence about this year's team that didn't even exist last season during the SEC regular-season title run.
He doesn't hide it.
Last year, he felt as though Auburn limped to the finish — both literally and figuratively. The end-of-season slate wasn't pretty for the Tigers who ultimately only won three of its last eight games. But the physical toll Auburn took without McLemore who had broken his leg and an ailing Bryce Brown on an already shorthanded roster was too much to overcome. Even at the time, Pearl acknowledged it could be that team's downfall.
His rhetoric couldn't be much different heading into this postseason.
"I just think the biggest thing was, like I said when I started off with, is we’re healthy. We’re nine deep, maybe getting to be 10 deep," Pearl said. "We are in a good place right now as far as our team. We've got nine healthy guys. Austin Wiley did practice with us yesterday for the first time. He will practice again today. His status is still day-to-day."
Wiley, who has practiced the last three days, could give Auburn another big body to work into the rotation. Pearl could've only dreamed of a 10-man rotation at this time last year, especially with three possible centers.
McLemore's midseason injury proved to be a negative turning point for the Tigers last year. It crippled an Auburn front court that already lacked Wiley and Danjel Purifoy. The remaining members were undersized, McLemore included. His leg injury forced him to miss tournament play in 2018, and he remembers watching idly thinking he could've been a difference maker.
"t means a lot to me personally, because I didn’t get to play last year. I can kind of come back and contribute to the team this year. Last year in the tournament, the NCAA Tournament, I felt like I could have contributed a little bit," McLemore said. "So this year, hopefully, we are a little better prepared to go and make some noise in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments with all our guys. Austin is feeling good. He’s been lifting and working out real good, so we plan to get him back, too. We’re just really preparing right now."
3. Bruce Pearl looking for X-factor production
With Auburn's potential 10-man rotation, seven members are fairly established.
Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, Samir Doughty, Malik Dunbar, Chuma Okeke, Anfernee McLemore and Horace Spencer have played enough consistent minutes this season to know what to expect from them on a day-in, day-out basis. Auburn plays to its strengths and avoids its weaknesses at each of those spots.
The Tigers aren't always sure what to expect from its other three, in part because of rotational role, in part because of minutes. For this reason, the postseason X-factors could end up being those three unknowns — Danjel Purifoy, J'Von McCormick and Austin Wiley.
Purifoy recently announced via Twitter and Instagram his plan to return for his senior season. Pearl applauded the role Purifoy has taken on this season and said his best Auburn moments could and should be ahead of him.
"I think that it speaks to Danjel’s commitment to Auburn, to go through the good, the bad and the ugly and to not lose faith. Our guys have got confidence in him. He certainly is, you know, depth is vital, especially at this time of the year," Pearl said. "Chuma Okeke just has been playing great, and that’s his position. So, Danjel’s the first one to like say, ‘Leave him in there. He’s killing it,’ and yet at the same time recognizing when I get my opportunity to maybe play a more dominant role and have the ability to start with the team from the beginning — look, he was suspended for nine games and not eligible to play. That definitely set him back a year and a half, and so perhaps he’s looking for — and look, I keep telling him, ‘Hey, let’s not worry about next year. Let’s break through this year.’ He’s getting closer."
Pearl joked about his tough-love relationship with McCormick as he pointed out how vital those backup point guard minutes are this time of year.
"I’d say 10 or more [minutes] is really important. J’Von’s quickness and speed has been a factor," Pearl said. "My wife gets on me all the time because she thinks I’m on J’Von too much, and she doesn’t like the way I yell at him and get after him, but I don’t mind telling you: I yell at him because I want more. I don’t yell at him because he does things wrong, and I’m not mad at him — but sometimes I get mad at him because I want him to be more aggressive, that’s all, and use his speed and quickness on offense and defense. So, I think from his standpoint, I think he’s not mad at me when I’m on him, because why would a player be mad at his coach who wants him to do more? A lot of times you’re yelling, ‘Stop! Don’t do that. Do less! You’re killing us!’ I want him to do more."
McLemore has his own take on how useful Wiley's role could be for he and Horace Spencer.
"It would help a lot, because Austin, he’s just a great player, great rebounder, just a big body that’s down there in the paint. Just to be able to go back to where we were, playing that kind of two-big-man style offense where you run different plays for him than you would for me, that kind of just makes the scout a little bit harder on the other team, to try to scout against us," McLemore said. "It’s just good for morale on the bench because you know we have our brother back, that he’s on the court again and playing good. It just helps the team morale overall."
4. Remembering the Missouri blowout and watch to watch
Plain and simple: Auburn ran Missouri out of Auburn Arena earlier this season.
On Jan. 30, Missouri came to the Plains in hoping of reversing its early success in SEC play. It didn't come anywhere close to happening. Auburn dismantled Missouri by a score of 92-58. By game's end, Auburn's walk-ons were banking in 3-point shots that had Auburn's bench — its usual starting unit — as electric as it has been all season.
Pearl doesn't expect to have it as easy this time around.
Though, he didn't know until Wednesday night exactly who Auburn would play. He mentioned Tuesday how different the two styles of play are with Georgia and Missouri, so Auburn was doing its best to prepare for both.
His expectations for Missouri serve as an opposing balance for how Auburn operates.
"Missouri is a very physical inside offensive team that can go inside and out. [Jordan] Geist is a real tough guy at his position. The big kid is strong, we've had real good physical contests with Missouri in the past, they play great defense," Pearl said. "They're sneaky high-ranked in certain categories that matter like field goal percentage defense, they're fourth or fifth rebound margin, they're up there."
With that in mind, the rebounding advantage will be the box score column to watch.
Auburn out-rebounded Alabama by one in the middle of last week. In its other two March games against Tennessee and Mississippi State, the Tigers have lost the rebounding battle by a combined 32 boards.
Auburn is a heavy favorite going into the Missouri game. But it'll be a great rebounding tuneup with South Carolina waiting in the quarterfinals.
"It’s going to be absolutely important because every team we play is going to be taller than us, longer than us, so we have to make it a big emphasis to box out and just crash the boards and not let what happened in the Tennessee game happen again," McLemore said. "That almost cost us the game with me not getting those last two offensive rebounds. We have been doing defensive rebounding drill work these last couple of days in practice and we’re probably going to do more today. Just putting more emphasis on keeping our man out of the rebounding areas and make sure our man can’t get it so hopefully one of our guards can come in and scoop the ball up if it hits the ground."
5. Statistical storylines to follow
• Heading into SEC Tournament play, Auburn has the 12th-best offensive rating in the country, per Ken Pom. For some upcoming opponent reference, Missouri ranks 136th nationally. Auburn's defensive rating (41st nationally) also ranks slightly ahead of Missouri (44th).
• Speaking of KenPom, the predictive metric projects Auburn to win 73-65, give it a 76 percent chance to win.
• Bryce Brown is two 3-point makes away from securing solo fourth place on the SEC's all-time 3-pointers made list. He's one away from tying former Tennessee guard Allan Houston. Beyond that, it will take deep SEC and NCAA tournament runs for Brown to move up on the all-time list.
• Chuma Okeke has scored in double figures in 15 of Auburn's 18 conference games. All three of those single-digit games happened Feb. 2 or earlier. In his last 10 games, Okeke has averaged nearly 15 points per game.
• Auburn ranks fifth in the nation in steal percentage. The Tigers are fifth in the nation in block percentage. Combined, it makes up the best defensive turnover percentage in all of college basketball — at 25.2 percent.
• Missouri's best defensive metric based on national ranking? 3-point percentage on defense. Missouri only allows 31.7 percent to opponent. That's comparable to and slightly better than Alabama who forced Auburn to take much more of an inside approach than it has for much of this season.