AUBURN — A two-win week gave Auburn some breathing room.
The Tigers (20-9, 9-7 SEC) head to Tuscaloosa to take on cross-state rival Alabama (17-12, 8-8 SEC) who needs a win to stay in contention for an SEC Tournament double-bye. A loss would likely mathematically eliminate Auburn from that possibility. Auburn cruised at home earlier this season, but have only won three of its last 18 at Alabama.
Here are the five storylines to follow heading into that matchup.
1. Sense of relief (kinda) after the Georgia, MSU wins
Bruce Pearl doesn't hide from the NCAA Tournament selection process. He doesn't want his players to do that either.
That's why, all season long, the Auburn basketball coach has an open dialogue with his players about what each game means for the tournament résumé. Pearl doesn't mentioned AP Top 25 rankings because those don't matter. But the NCAA NET ranking, Quadrant wins, strength of schedules — the deciding factors of tournament placement and seeding — are regular conversations between Pearl and his players.
He doesn't want them to be blindsided.
"I want to be honest with our players. I told them this [last week against Georgia] is a must-win. I can't have a bad loss on the résumé," Pearl said. "We went to Georgia, and I knew we were playing a really good Georgia team that went down and beat Florida on Saturday. ... But we can't go there and lose to a 1-11 NET team on the road. That's going to all of a sudden change our résumé. I'd rather have them know that before the game starts than after the game saying, 'God, coach, I wish you would have told us that if we lost that it could knock us out of the tournament.'"
On the flip side, he lets them know when Quadrant 1 or 2 wins are must-haves for improving their chances.
"We keep really close tabs on where we are," Pearl said. "Where we are in the NET, that matters. Where our opponents are matters. I do keep our players informed of it. Every time you get a win over a Quadrant 1 or 2 team, it just enhances your tournament résumé and puts you that much closer to being able to play for a national championship. ... Obviously at Auburn, we've not been back-to-back very often. That would be something that we'd like to try to do."
Auburn didn't lose to Georgia. It didn't lose to Mississippi State either, which conversely to the Georgia game, gave the Tigers a Quadrant 1 win it's been in search for all season. The two-win week came at a perfect time for Auburn as it fought to stay out of the NCAA bubble conversation.
"We're just happy with last week's results," Pearl said.
There are no guarantees.
But, with two victories last week, it would take a catastrophic final week against Alabama and Tennessee for Auburn to be back in danger. Even that might not be enough since on the road in Tuscaloosa and at home against the Volunteers are both Quadrant 1 matchups unlikely to negatively affect Auburn's perception.
"We know the possibilities are for this week. Two really tough teams to beat, both Alabama and Tennessee," Pearl said. "The math obviously speaks for itself — 3-and-15 the last 18 times we've been there [to Tuscaloosa]. Tennessee is a Final Four national championship type team, and that's what we've got this week. We have to play our best basketball to beat those two teams. ... But the good thing about the position that we’re in right now is the quality of every single one of the opponents that we’re playing the rest of the way. They're all really good teams that we’ll have to play well to beat."
2. Austin Wiley remains unlikely to play, but not all hope lost
No more clarity has been given on Austin Wiley's timetable.
The Auburn big man has been out since the Kentucky game with a lower right leg injury. As reported previously, Wiley didn't re-injure the leg when he went down against the Wildcats. But he aggravated it to the point Auburn trainers are treating like the normal rehab process, just to be safe.
The phrasing used to describe Wiley's availability status for the last few weeks remains unchanged.
"I think he's doubtful again for Tuesday," Pearl said.
His optimism hasn't wavered, however.
"I think, as time goes on, I think he's getting closer," he said.
Pearl opted against delving deeper into the severity of the injury.
He confirmed it wasn't a stress fracture as he's dealt with in the past, but chose to stick to the "lower leg injury" label he has given in the past. Ultimately, Pearl said, Wiley's timeline and progression will come down to what doctors and trainers say is best for Wiley.
"I think that, first of all, that's a doctor and trainer decision. I do know that when he re-aggravated the lower leg in the Kentucky game, the decision was made to go back and let it rest and get some of the inflammation out and do more of a rehab even though everything was still intact and solid," Pearl said. "I think he does feel better as a result of that. The balance is going to be he's been on such limited minutes since his return that his effectiveness is marginalized because he's not in the kind of shape to be able to play well. His health will dictate when he's back completely. That'll be the determining factor."
3. What's the game plan traveling to Tuscaloosa?
With its length on the perimeter, Alabama is viewed as one of the best teams in the Southeastern Conference at defending 3-pointers. The Crimson Tide have allowed opponents to hit 32.8 percent of 3-point attempts this season. On the flip side of that, Auburn has hit more 3-pointers in the SEC by nearly 80 makes.
Something's gotta give.
"Going to Alabama, they’ve got great size, great length," Pearl said. "They do it because they do a lot of switching, they put people on the perimeter who have great length. They’ve got a lot of equal parts."
Pearl mentioned (earlier in the article, too) that the math doesn't favor Auburn.
The Tigers have only won three times in their last 18 tries in Tuscaloosa. But there are also experiences from this season to grasp onto to provide hope. Auburn played one of its more complete games of the season earlier in the year in Auburn Arena. Pearl acknowledged as much Monday.
But he anticipates a much different matchup at Alabama.
So, what does the game plan look like to steal a win?
Well, it starts by correcting what went wrong in the most recent game — rebounding and avoiding a sluggish second half.
"We got out-rebounded by 20 by Mississippi State. You are not going to win many games when you get one offensive rebound," Pearl said. "We also played really well in the first half. We only turned it over a couple of times and played not as well in the second half where we turned it over eight times so not turning it over, rebound the ball, don’t get physically overwhelmed, handle the environment."
4. Chaotic Southeastern Conference standings in final week
This week will be a whirlwind for the Southeastern Conference regular-season standings.
What happens this week will decide who is seeded where in the SEC Tournament next week. It's jumbled in the middle. Five teams — Florida, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and South Carolina — are tied with 9-7 conference records. Alabama is a game behind that at 8-8.
That leaves the standings TBD from No. 4 to No. 9, which means one double-bye spot is up for grabs.
“Going up to Tuscaloosa, right now where we are — I’ve never been in a league in the last week where you could move five spots in a couple of games," Pearl said. "I think it just speaks to how competitive the league is, how balanced it is and how difficult it is."
I'm not going to get into the hypotheticals now. I'll save that for the Tennessee preview.
But, here are the mid-week and weekend schedules for each of those six teams fighting for SEC positioning:
• Alabama: vs. Auburn, at Arkansas
• Auburn: at Alabama, vs. Tennessee
• Florida: vs. LSU, at Kentucky
• Mississippi State: at Tennessee, vs. Texas A&M
• Ole Miss: vs. Kentucky, at Missouri
• South Carolina: at Texas A&M, vs. Georgia
South Carolina probably has the easiest road of everyone against two of the league's bottom feeders. Florida isn't in an enviable position with two games against top-3 league teams.
Auburn's finish isn't a cakewalk either.
5. Statistical storylines to follow
Here are some statistical storylines to follow as Auburn takes on Alabama in Tuscaloosa:
• KenPom gives Auburn a 61 percent chance to win at Alabama, which seems high. The projected score is 75-72 Auburn. The Tigers are 2.5-point favorites on most betting sites.
• Auburn trails the all-time series with Alabama, 96-63.
• The Tigers' free-throw shooting percentage is up above 73 percent the last 15 games after sitting at 66 percent through the first 14.
• Auburn continues to lead the nation in turnover percentage on the defensive end at 25.2 percent.
• Alabama forward Donta Hall ranks 19th nationally in offensive rating, per KenPom, albeit with a lower usage rate. That's by far the highest of anyone in this game. Jared Harper is next best at 197th.
• Since we've tracked Bryce Brown's career 3-point shooting stats the last few games, let's continue that trend. He made it into solo fifth last game. It's not fairly unlikely Brown reaches No. 4 on the list against, but it's not completely impossible. He's at 339 career makes. Allan Houston, a standout for Tennessee in the 90s, is at 346. Brown will probably catch him by the end of the season, but it'll take an insane shooting night to get to that number in Tuscaloosa.