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The basic premise here is that we present to you three (3) observations regarding the ball club, two (2) questions about the ball club and one (1) fearless prediction.
Off we go.
1. Bo Nix very clearly took a step back. It’s easy to look at his line — 20-of-41 for 153 yards and zero touchdowns — and conclude that things weren’t going well for him. Or for Auburn.
Yet what happened Saturday was more alarming that a shaky set of numbers. We saw a guy, the team’s most important offensive player, losing his cool in relatively normal situations and clearly allowing the disdain to affect his play. Nix completed four of his final 13 attempts. Nix also was getting antsy about eluding pressure sideways rather than stepping up into the pocket, keeping his eyes (and attention) focused on downfield options.
We also saw Nix berating senior wideout Shed Jackson as the Tigers burned a first-half timeout due to communication issues. Moments later, Nix was seen berating a walk-on quarterback charged with relaying plays to the huddle.
On one hand, leadership sometimes requires tough love. On the other hand, the best leaders rarely lose their cool under pressure. As we all know, this isn’t the first time Nix has been a bit too fiery.
Remember the calculating guy who came up big against LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss? Where did he go? After a weird and generally wasteful performance against Georgia State, a game remembered for what Nix’s backup was able to accomplish during the final minutes, Nix seemed to finally turn a mental corner. We all thought he was rehabilitated. We thought he was better.
Now this.
Look, Nix is a junior with 2,194 college snaps under his belt. If the alleged metamorphosis we thought we saw during the past month was a mirage, when will Bryan Harsin and the offensive staff be able to truly trust him? Harsin was asked Saturday if he’d considered benching Nix in favor of T.J. Finley.
His answer was nebulous. “That’s hard to answer without really watching what happened,” Harsin said. “On the sideline, we all think we know what happened and then we go back and study the film and it was completely different.”
That’s not exactly a vote of confidence.
2. The defense did its job. All the consternation over Nix’s odd/ineffective behavior and the team’s continued lack of consistent execution at wideout casts a big shadow. A dark shadow.
There was some sunlight.
Derek Mason’s group again accomplished what it needed to accomplish. Texas A&M’s strong offense tallied just 13 points Saturday — and scored precisely zero touchdowns in three red-zone trips. Auburn’s current dogma involves protecting doggedly against big busts and instead forcing offenses to build long, gradual drives. Many teams don’t have the players or the patience or the focus to build long, gradual drives without making key mistakes.
The Aggies serially failed as the end zone approached. And that’s a really good sign for the Tigers.
Casual fans may see the Aggies’ 409 yards and 15 (!!) explosive plays and figure the Auburn defense was abused. That was not the case. Texas A&M quarterback Zach Calzada was affected by the Tigers’ pass rush throughout the second half despite Mason’s general blitz aversion. That’s a really good sign for the Tigers.
Did A&M deserve to win? Absolutely. The Aggies made more plays. Still, Auburn’s defense kept the team in the game until the fourth quarter — and then the offense capitulated. The defense never was dispirited.
3. Mike Bobo got a little too conservative on us. One of the most interesting elements of the Tigers’ interesting season so far as been the offensive play-calling, which has been surprisingly savvy.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo was something of a journeyman when Harsin hired him last winter. The Auburn job was his third in three seasons and the previous two didn’t end well. Expectations weren’t exactly high. Yet Bobo and Harsin have collaborated to make the Tigers’ attack quite cunning with a varied approach toward route combinations and overall sequencing.
Some of the play designs during the past month have been downright diabolical.
Things took a turn toward the banal at Texas A&M, however. Bobo introduced a four-man bunch set early in the game that exuded strategic confidence, but subsequent calls became increasingly standard. Reserve tailback Shaun Shivers was the team’s leading receiver Saturday with six catches for 40 yards. Starting tailback Tank Bigsby caught four balls for 16 yards — all of them screens with minimal big-play upside.
I realize Nix had a terrible game. I also realize that the Tigers’ wideouts leave a lot to be desired. I also realize the Aggies’ home crowd was as loud as ever. Those factors must be considered when Bobo (and Harsin) are hashing things out in real time.
With that said, the Tigers’ most bankable offensive trait this season has been its play-calling. That’s just real talk. Bigsby is a terrific player, but this offensive line is so-so (at best) when it comes to run blocking. Bigsby, as a result, is a part-time star at this juncture.
If Bobo loses his nerve, this offense doesn’t have a chance. He lost (or squelched) his nerve in College Station and the result was hideous. The reasons behind Auburn’s failure are numerous, but tailback screens won’t win games and they send a message that things aren’t going well.
A different tone must be set.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What do we make of Nix moving forward? I half-way stumbled down this road during last week’s column and ended it with the following statement: “I still don’t trust Bo Nix to be serene and purpose-driven in difficult situations against top-tier competition.”
And here we are.
We will spent the coming week wondering or perhaps kvetching over the possibility of a change being made at quarterback. I don’t see any way that Finley actually starts over Nix next week despite the awful performance in Texas. So I’m all but certain that Nix retains his job.
With that said, Harsin and Bobo must spend some time pondering where the line exists between Nix and Finley. That is to say: How poorly must Nix play for a change to be triggered at quarterback? I’m surprised that Nix was allowed to continue into the fourth quarter because, well, he seemed like a guy who’d lost his ability to focus. Spoiler alert: He didn’t accomplish much during the fourth quarter.
Identify a line. Do it for Nix, for Finley, for the team.
2. Is Auburn actually ready to challenge for a trip to Atlanta? We’ve spent the past month doing the math to determine this team’s ceiling. A win over A&M would have solidified Auburn as a Legitimate Contender in the Western Division, but that candidacy now is under review.
Are we sure Auburn belongs in that conversation? We all want to see an Iron Bowl that means something, that has real consequence in the Southeastern Conference title race, but this team’s flaws really stuck out in College Station. Nix is a wild card and his wideouts can’t bail him out and the offensive line never will be a strength.
I’ve said for more than month that Auburn players are getting the best coaching they’ve received in many years. I still believe that despite some missteps last weekend. This team is good. The strategy is sound and (generally) creates advantages. Many of these players are taking meaningful steps forward.
The news is almost universally good on that front, but the A&M game reminded us all that there is much work ahead. The quarterback, wideouts and offensive line must improve dramatically for Auburn to actually qualify for Atlanta. Great coaching can only do so much.
ONE FEARLESS PREDICTION
I find myself serially conflicted about Nix. His stinky performances like the one last weekend totally erodes belief in him as a Franchise Quarterback, but I still believe he has untapped potential. His arm is strong enough and he’s fast enough to be a supplemental element in the run game.
He’s pretty good most of the time.
Will he be able to view himself critically when watching footage of him boiling over emotionally last weekend? He surely feels the threat of Finley, who has been working diligently to improve himself in anticipation of an opportunity.
The last time Nix felt that burn, he took a major step forward.
I forecast another one ahead of this upcoming date with Mississippi State. We’ll soon see Good Bo again — and once again ponder the possibility of a high-stakes game against Alabama later this month.
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