SALT LAKE CITY — The NCAA Tournament is officially here.
Auburn (26-9) traveled to Salt Lake City for its first-round matchup against New Mexico State (30-4). The two teams will tip off in Vivint Smarthome Arena at 12:30 p.m. CT. The winner of that matchup will face the winner of Kansas-Northeastern, which takes place in the second game Thursday.
Here are the seven storylines to follow heading into Auburn-New Mexico State.
1. Why Bruce Pearl sees New Mexico State as Cinderella-capable
You don't have to look too deep into New Mexico State's résumé to understand what the Aggies have accomplished this season.
They're on a 19-game winning streak, which dates back to Jan. 3, though that lost came against little-known Cal Baptist. New Mexico State finished the season 30-4, and regardless of the opponents, that's an impressive stretch. The Aggies beat Washington State twice. They took Kansas to the brink, leading for more than the Jayhawks led them before falling by three points in Kansas City.
All these components have combined to demand Bruce Pearl's respect.
"They’re really good," Pearl said. "They’d be my 5-12 upset pick if I wasn’t playing against them."
The main reason for Pearl's appreciation for the Aggies: Chris Jans, the second-year head coach.
Pearl and Jans have had their paths intertwine multiple times. Jans is close friends with a former Pearl assistant. When Pearl took the Milwaukee job earlier in his career, he looked at Jans for one of his assistant coaching positions: "That tells you a little bit about how much I think of him," he said.
In Jans' two seasons at New Mexico State, the Aggies have gone 58-10 with two NCAA Tournament appearances.
"Chris Jans is great young coach, unbelievable pedigree with the guys he’s worked for and with," Pearl said.
2. Auburn feels like it's looking in the mirror
Auburn player quotes included a common thread Wednesday. When asked about New Mexico State, there were many variations of Auburn players explaining how similar they styles of 5-seed Auburn and 12-seed New Mexico State are.
Here were just a few of the quotes:
"It’s really like preparing to play against ourselves with this team right here. It’s really like practicing against us, honestly," Samir Doughty said.
"Overall, I think it’s going to be a pretty good game because we play so similar," Anfernee McLemore said.
"I feel like there’s a lot of similarities between us and them in a way," Chuma Okeke said.
"They play all their players like we play all our players," Malik Dunbar said.
Their head coach summed it up in the most creative way.
Both teams have trustworthy benches. Auburn goes 10 deep and New Mexico State plays 13. Both teams shoot 3-pointers at a top-20 rate nationally. Both teams are proud to be undersized groups that outperform some of their big-bodied opponents.
"We have been the New Mexico State of the SEC," Pearl said. "If they were playing in the SEC, they’d look like us."
3. Preparing for a 13-man rotation
New Mexico State's depth even impresses Auburn.
The Tigers, back to a 10-man rotation, go as deep as anyone in the Southeastern Conference. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team in college basketball with as much confidence in its bench as New Mexico State who as a legitimate 13-man rotation.
"We haven't seen that all year, and when you get around this time of the season, coaches, strength in rotations and we don't do that, so that makes them similar to us," Bryce Brown said. "They don't shrink their rotation so they have 13 or 14 guys that play, all of them are capable of going off at any moment in the game."
It's a bonafide 13-man rotation, too.
The Aggies have 13 different guys who have played at least 19.7 percent of the team's minutes this season. That means New Mexico State's 13th man — guard Jabari Rice, for those counting at home — averages 10.9 minute per game. For good measure, the Aggies have two other players who still average 6 minutes per game.
The issue for game planning: It could be someone else's night in any given game.
"They don't have any weaknesses. They're good. So, yeah, personnel is important," Pearl said. "We haven't played against a team like New Mexico State unless we have won against ourselves."
4. Auburn unfazed by fatigue, elevation in Salt Lake City
A 13-man rotation means something else: constantly fresh bodies.
Concerns have been raised on that front for Auburn. The Tigers played four games in four days last week. Auburn won on Sunday, returned back to the Plains, had a light day Monday, flew to Salt Lake City on Tuesday and finally had a close-to-normal day Wednesday.
A lot has happened in a week, and it's reasonable to think the Tigers are tired.
They've brushed off that notion, however.
"I don’t think fatigue’s going to be a factor, but you don’t know until you actually get out there," Pearl said. "If it was easy, anybody could do it. It’s not easy. I don’t think it’ll be just fatigue that’ll get us. I think it’ll be a very good team we’re playing against."
The venue for Auburn's first two rounds enhances the talking point.
Salt Lake City's elevation drew questions Wednesday about whether Pearl anticipated any breathing complications because of the heightened air conditions. Pearl said the team will be prepared on the off chance it becomes an issue, but he joked about who would actually end up needing the provided oxygen tanks.
"There are some things you can snack on, some drinks you can have that can help alleviate that. There will be oxygen on the bench, most likely for me not the players. I'll have oxygen there," Pearl said. "Allen Greene wanted to make sure I had oxygen on the bench. He's seen me get elevated a time or two."
5. Possible post presence advantage for Auburn?
Does this sound familiar? New Mexico State's starting center is 6-foot-7.
Anfernee McLemore is rarely the same height as the opposing center. Assuming McLemore starts as he did all four games in Nashville, he will match up quite nicely with Aggies starting center Eli Chuha.
"We're used to being quicker than other teams. Their 5s are a little undersized, so it may be a battle down in the post because of the quickness," McLemore said. "But once Austin gets in the game, he's going to have a big advantage over that 5, so that's definitely something we're going to have to utilize."
Though undersized, New Mexico State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country.
Chuha specifically ranks 11th in the nation, per KenPom, in defensive rebounding percentage. That means he's one of the best in the nation in executing his defensive rebound opportunities. On the whole, the Aggies top-10 nationally in offensive rebound percentage and preventing opponent offensive rebound percentage.
So the undersized unit maximizes its ability.
Still, the physical capabilities of Horace Spencer and Austin Wiley seem to give them a favorable matchup.
Wiley, who worked his way back into the rotation last week, expects to see a little bit of a mismatch Thursday.
"I feel like we can do some actions against their bigs," Wiley said. "But they’re still deep. We get one in foul trouble, they’re going to have another one come right off the bench. But I definitely feel like a little bit of a mismatch inside with me being bigger."
Pearl hesitates to call them undersized because, as he says, "they're long." Plus, the rebound statistics speak for themselves. He mentioned Wednesday how much better of a rebounding team New Mexico State is compared to Auburn. Though, he wondered aloud whether that was because the Tigers play in the SEC instead of the WAC (you can probably answer this question yourselves).
Auburn will continue to work with its three-man center rotation of Spencer, Wiley and McLemore.
For one of the rare times all season, that size mismatch could be one the Tigers are able to exploit.
"We utilize everybody on the team — me, Austin and Ant. We all have different dynamics in our front court. I think we can use everyone’s talents to our fullest extent in this game," Spencer said. "Having that 6-foot-7 matchup is probably going to be good for us, taking it into the post and using our strengths we have in the post from the 4 to the 5. We have a pretty good chance of having success in that area."
6. Auburn won't stop shooting 3s — and neither will New Mexico State
Bruce Pearl's least favorite basketball cliché?
"You win by the 3 and you die by the 3," Pearl said. "That's a good one. That makes a lot of sense."
Pearl has heard the yearlong criticisms: Auburn basketball relies too much on the 3-point shot. He laughs when he hears this concept now because it's been a criticism of so many of his teams in the past. His offensive philosophy preaches fast pace and the deep ball.
And it's gotten Auburn this far.
Now isn't the time to change.
"f I have five guys that can't shoot a three ball, you think I'm going to have them shoot a three ball? Not very long. We will put four or five guys on the floor that can shoot it. It is most important I give them the confidence to shoot it," Pearl said. "When they take a bad shot, I blame the other four guys for not getting offensive rebounds and bailing them out."
New Mexico State shares a similar offensive identity.
Auburn and New Mexico State rank 8th and 19th in the nation, respectively, in 3-point attempts per field goals attempted. Both teams have fully embraced the modern-game mentality of 3-point specialization. It's what has shaped the Golden State Warriors dynasty. It's what pushed Villanova to a convincing national championship in 2018.
It should make for an exciting brand of basketball Thursday in Salt Lake City.
Pearl laughs about — though with seriousness in his words — the value of the 3-point shot. Until that changes, which it never will, the way Auburn plays basketball won't change much either.
"As long as the thing is going to be worth more than the two, it's an open shot, most three balls you don't get much contact. Every other shot in the court, you are getting hit. If you can't make an open shot, it is hard to play the game," Pearl said. "So yeah, occasionally we shoot it early or take a bad shot or -- next play. Get to the next play. The best play in basketball, the best play in basketball is the three-point shot, the inside 3-point shot, the and-one.The second-best play in basketball is outside that 3-point line."
7. Statistical storylines to follow
Here are the statistical storylines to track as Auburn takes on New Mexico State:
• New Mexico State's 19-game winning streak is second-best in the nation behind Wofford. Auburn's 8-game winning streak is tied for 10th in the country. Something has to give.
• Auburn continues to rank No. 1 in the country in defensive turnover percentage, forcing opponents into turnovers on 25.4 percent of possessions.
• New Mexico State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Aggies rank 7th in the nation, percentage-wise, in preventing opponents from gathering offensive rebounds. Conversely, they rank 4th in collecting their own offensive rebounds. Starting center Eli Chuha ranks 11th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage by a player.
• Also an interesting stat the Aggies rank best in the nation: assists allowed per field goals made. That means when the Aggies give up points on defense, their opponent is rarely achieving it on assisted buckets.
• KenPom projects Auburn to win 76-69. The Tigers have a 72 percent chance of winning the game.