Published Mar 29, 2019
Storylines to track for Auburn-UNC
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Ben Wolk  •  AuburnSports
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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Another game, another historic opponent.

Auburn (28-9) cruised into the Sweet 16 with a dominant win against Kansas. The next challenge will be even more difficult and will be just as illustrious of an opponent. North Carolina (29-6) is one of the best teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Many view the Tar Heels as the favorite to win the whole thing. Auburn pays that no mind. The two teams will tip off in the Sprint Center at 6:29 p.m. CT.

The winner of that matchup will face the winner of Houston-Kentucky in the Elite Eight on Sunday.

Here are the six storylines to follow heading into Auburn-UNC.

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1. Auburn soaking up the Sweet 16, but wanting for more

Bruce Pearl walked through the hallways of the Sprint Center from the Auburn locker room to the interview podium.

It's his 11th Sweet 16 appearance as a coach. That's 11 more than all the players on his roster combined. Auburn has taken an act-like-you've-been-there-before approach to most everything it has accomplished this season — even when it hasn't been there before.

So, Pearl quipped as he marched through the hallways:

"We'd like to act like we've been here before, but we can't," Pearl joked.

There's something different about the Sweet 16, especially this Kansas City regional. North Carolina, Kentucky and Houston have illustrious basketball histories. Auburn doesn't. It's tough for these Tigers to play the veteran, experienced role give its newcomer role.

But they pay that narrative no mind.

Their main goals remain a weekend away.

"We can’t get too high knowing its the Sweet 16. We have to play the same way we’ve been playing the whole season," J'Von McCormick said. "Knowing that it’s another couple games to get where we want to go because it’s the Final Four and NCAA championship we're out for."

With that said, Auburn's players are grateful to make Auburn history.

It's the first time the Tigers have been in the Sweet 16 since 2003. This marks only the fifth time in program history Auburn has made it this far. To be one of the 16 teams remaining in a 68-team tournament is worth relishing.

Even Samir Doughty — who adamantly ignored emotion after the Kansas win — admitted how cool it is to be a part of Sweet 16 basketball tradition.

"I heard Anfernee say it before. There were 64 teams. There’s 16 now. It’s definitely, regardless of who we play, it’s definitely good to be in this position. Regardless of who our next team we play is, if we go to the Elite Eight, there’s not a lot of teams left. It just goes to show that we’re one of the best 16 teams in the country," Doughty said. "That’s just a great feeling right there. We feel like we’re supposed to be here."

2. There are the blue bloods — and there's Auburn

Pearl & Co. embrace the underdog role.

In fact, they'd prefer it.

Pearl made a point Thursday to remember the rich basketball histories of Auburn's next opponent North Carolina, as well as the track record of the next possible matchup with Kentucky or Houston.

"North Carolina and Kentucky, obviously are great blue bloods, and you know what? I’m old enough to remember when Guy Lewis was at Houston and Houston was a regular in the Final Four in the early 80s," Pearl said. "So, that’s what I look at the bracket; I kind of see that."

Here's a Final Four appearance count for the four teams in the Kansas City regional.

North Carolina: 20.

Kentucky: 17.

Houston: 5.

Auburn: Goose egg.

The other three have been relevant for decades. Auburn is new to the game. That likely has zero effect whatsoever on the outcome of Friday's games, and the potential for a Sunday game. But the Tigers would rather you think that favorite-underdog element is a real thing that will make a real difference.

The underdogs want to stay the underdogs.

"It’s not just the name. The name is some motivation. But it’s mostly everybody counts us out thinking North Carolina is going to run through us," Austin Wiley said. "That’s a little extra motivation. It’s also just good to represent Auburn on this stage because nobody thinks of Auburn as a basketball school. So, we just want to continue and advance."

This was something Auburn's players accepts — and were happy to see — when the brackets released.

The Tigers knew they'd have to play one of the two 30-win teams in the tournament. Then, they saw a cast of historic programs — Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Houston. It was never going to be an easy road for the Tigers.

That's how Auburn wanted it.

"When we saw our bracket for the tournament, we saw we had Kansas. We saw UNC. We saw Kentucky. Those three are just historically some of the best teams in college basketball," Anferenee McLemore said. "If we want to be one of the top teams in basketball history, beating these teams will help solidify ourselves among the top — the teams Wesley Person, Charles Barkley, all those guys played on. So if we want to be up there, this is the route we need to take."

3. UNC forward Nassir Little health update

Some big health news struck Thursday amid the Kansas City regional media day.

One of North Carolina's best players wasn't practicing with the team.

Nassir Little, viewed as a potential NBA lottery pick, has gotten sick since arriving at the Sweet 16. He didn't practice with the team to avoid getting anyone else sick. The diagnosis hasn't advanced much past "flu-like symptoms," but North Carolina coach Roy Williams had a doubtful update Thursday when asked about Little.

"I can say it's hard to make a 180-turn because there's no way in the world he could play if we're playing [Thursday]," Williams said. "Didn't feel good last night. Was running a little bit of a temperature this morning. Didn't feel like eating. ... I don't foresee making a decision until game time. But if he's like he is now, there's no way he can play"

If Little can't go, what does it mean for this matchup?

Well, the freshman averages 10 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. He shoots 48.5 percent from the floor. Those numbers may not wow, but if you look at Pearl's characterization of Little earlier in the week, it seems like a missing piece that would be a huge advantage for Auburn.

"Nassir Little comes in at 6-7 but he plays very — if Zion wasn’t at Duke, they’d be talking a lot more about Nassir Little at North Carolina," Pearl said. "Nassir was the MVP of the same McDonald’s All-American game that Zion was in. Nassir was the MVP of the McDonald’s game."

Little's status will be a big talking point from now until tip-off. We'll try to give you up-to-speed updates on Little as game time nears.

4. Both teams will run, run and run some more

Maybe the narrative has become tired this week.

It'll continue to be worn out, however.

Because it's true.

Auburn plays fast. The Tigers are known for using its quick guards to run in transition and make life challenging for opposing defense. North Carolina plays even faster. The Tar Heels have the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in all of college basketball. Where Auburn likes to run off turnovers and long rebounds, North Carolina likes to run all the time.

A lot of teams shy away from North Carolina's speed.

Auburn welcomes it.

"That’s exactly how we want to play. That’s fun basketball. When teams slow the ball down against us, that’s not how we want to play. Against anybody, we want to play fast," Doughty said. "But a team that wants to play just as fast as us, we’re going to have to be mentally prepared for that because there’s not a lot of teams that can run with us. Everybody wants to make it a half-court game with us. But it’s definitely going to be a great game."

It will be a sight to see Friday.

Jared Harper can run with the best of them. So can J'Von McCormick. Coby White is among the only guards in college basketball who can hang with that duo. It will be a new-age, high-paced game Friday as Auburn takes on North Carolina.

McCormick, who proudly claims no one in America can keep he or Harper in front of them, is eager for the Coby White matchup.

"Most definitely, knowing that people are saying he’s pretty fast. Me and Jared know there isn’t anyone who can stay in front of us, so it’s going to be exciting to see if he’s really capable of doing it," McCormick said.

5. How to defend lights-out UNC forward Cam Johnson

North Carolina has plenty of dudes who can run teams out of the gym.

None may be harder to defend than Cam Johnson.

Johnson stands 6-foot-9. He shoots 46.3 percent from 3-point range. That's the sixth-best 3-point percentage in all of college basketball. None of the five people ahead of him are taller than 6-foot-5.

Johnson presents a matchup unlike anyone else the Tigers have faced this season. KenPom ranks Johnson as the No. 13-best offensive rating in all of college basketball.

This will mostly be a Samir Doughty and Malik Dunbar responsibility.

What do they see when they watch Johnson on film? Pretty simple analysis, really.

"That he can shoot lights out from 3," Dunbar said, shaking his head and smiling. "He's a great shooter honestly. So we have to get up in him. We have to make him a driver more than a shooter. We understand he's a great shooter. He really gets them going."

Doughty didn't mince words when previewing the task at hand.

"We’ve got to be there on the catch because it’s lights out," Doughty said. "I’m going to try my best to not let him catch and shoot because you might as well just count that and go to the other end if he gets that. He’s 6-9, so if he gets the shot off, ain’t nothing nobody else can do about that."

Dunbar and Doughty enjoy watching film as much as anyone.

Doughty, especially, studies opponent tendencies with unmatched fervor. He has watched a lot of Johnson film since returning from Salt Lake City. Auburn doesn't often reveal game plans before the game, but Doughty also knows this is a case of either doing what has to happen or not.

If he doesn't turn Johnson into a driver, he'll be a shooter. And when Johnson is a shooter, North Carolina is almost impossible to beat.

"He’s tough to cover. You have to be on there on the catch. You’ve got make him put the ball down. I know when he puts the ball down, he wants to drive right. We’ve got to limit him going to run right once he puts the ball down," Doughty said. "Get under him. You’ve gotta make him put the ball down. I’m going to try my best to arrive there on the catches. I’m fighting through on every ball screen. I’m going to try to make it tough for him."

6. Statistical storylines to follow

• North Carolina plays with the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in college basketball. The Tar Heels have the fifth-shortest offensive possessions in the country. By comparison, Auburn's adjusted tempo ranks No. 157 nationally. The Tigers' average offensive possession length ranks 64th. Part of Auburn's lower adjusted tempo has to do with how it forces opponents into such long possessions.

• North Carolina has the 16th-best offensive rebound rate in college basketball. The Tar Heels are 7th-best in America at preventing opponent offensive rebound rate. So, yeah, rebounding, as usual, will be a huge challenge for Auburn.

• Cam Johnson has the 13th-highest offensive rating in college basketball.

• The Tar Heels are 13th in the country in assists per field goal made. They like to pass the rock.

• Auburn remains fifth nationally in block percentage, first in steal percentage and first in turnover percentage. North Carolina has been relatively mediocre in that regard offensively, so Auburn has an opportunity to take advantage of the turnover margin yet again.

• These are two of the most efficient offense in the country. Auburn is rated the sixth most efficient offense in terms of KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. North Carolina ranks eighth.

• North Carolina sits 314th in college basketball in opponent 3-point attempts per field goal attempted. To simplify what that means, the Tar Heels struggle to stop teams from shooting 3-pointers. That has to signal good news for the Tigers' 3-point barrage.

• KenPom predicts the final score will be North Carolina 82, Auburn 78. It gives the Tigers a 36 percent chance of advancing to the Elite Eight.