In an unpredictable year for college football, and certainly the most turbulent, this Auburn-South Carolina matchup presents another unpredictable spectacle of gridiron chess. Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks are trying to win nasty early in the season and want to break long losing streak in this series.
South Carolina quarterback (and Colorado State graduate transfer) Collin Hill has been an efficient distributor of the football and protected it well early this season. Hill has thrown for just under 700, three touchdowns and only one interception.
Hill is a mobile quarterback that moves well in the pocket, has a strong arm and makes good decisions with the football. He's at his best on play-action rollouts throwing to out-breaking receivers and navigates the middle of the field well in the intermediate passing game. Hill is enough of a run threat on the zone read that defenses must account for him, especially in short-yardage. He’s already rushed for three touchdowns.
Sophomore running back Kevin Harris is a bull of a runner and is built to carry the workload. The 225-pounder is coming off a career-best 171 yards against Vanderbilt. He's a downhill runner with good vision and enough patience to let zone blocks develop. Harris excels at getting downhill behind the play-side double team and driving forward through contact, often running through linebackers as the offensive linemen engage them or following behind pulling guard Sadarius Hutcherson. Harris also is at least adequate in the screen game, which is something I’m certain we'll see Saturday.
This offense will bounce between 10, 20, 11 and 12 personnel groupings in order to get the matchups they think best fit the situation. With Auburn being small-ish and young at linebacker, I’d expect a lot of 12 personnel (two tight end) sets.
Quick-footed senior Shi Smith is the focus of the passing game. He will align at different spots — even in the backfield occasionally — and motion frequently to create coverage mismatches. Smith isn’t a big receiver, but comes off the line extremely fast and is great at stacking defenders' feet and breaking routes off into open space before they can recover. He’s most dangerous working the middle of the field and making the first tackler miss.
The second most effective component of the Gamecock passing game is tight end Nick Muse, who is coached by former Auburn analyst Bobby Bentley. He's an old-school player who looks more comfortable working with his hand in the dirt. He drive-blocks well, and then uses those blocks to set himself up as a target for play-action passes. Muse will attach to the line of scrimmage often, motion to change the strength, and occasionally flex out into the slot.
The South Carolina offensive line has been effective at run blocking for the most part through three games. Harris’ stat line is proof of such. The stud of the group is the aforementioned Hutcherson, who could start for any team in the conference. He will be a legitimate NFL pulling guard.
They lean mostly on zone blocking, outside of getting Hutcherson on the move in power and counter concepts. Former prize recruit Dylan Wonnum mans the left tackle spot and while he combines with Hutcherson to create an athletic front, the group has been porous in pass protection.
Defensively, the Gamecocks shouldn't surprise Auburn; Muschamp and former Auburn assistant and defensive back Travaris Robinson run essentially the same defensive construct as Kevin Steele. There is more of a propensity to sub into a dime personnel pressure package in long-yardage situations, however.
The Gamecock defensive front consists of three true defensive linemen and a hybrid Buck edge defender. This year’s incarnation is smaller than the last few seasons and relies on more frequent movements and stunts. Strong side end Aaron Sterling is 245 pounds, the heaviest starter at defensive tackles weighs 285.
Middle linebacker Ernest Jones has paced the team in tackles, averaging nearly 10 per game. Damani Staley and Jordan Burch have been Jones' most productive counterparts in the rotation. This entire group run fits very well and is technically sound. If you watch their first steps and fit angles you can tell their eyes are always in the right place.
The secondary has two big athletic corners that offer the team a ton of schematic versatility. Robinson, as a Muschamp disciple, always been a fan of running numerous coverages and disguising them pre-snap. Israel Mukuamu is a 6-4 specimen at one corner with good ball skills, a huge wing-span and sticky hands. Jaycee Horn is another prototype on the other side and is best playing zone coverage and attacking receivers once the ball is en route. You will see match quarters and Cover-3 (rip-liz match) as bases with a blend of split-field combo coverages, rolling slot man defenses and some man-under press. It will be important for Auburn to vary snap counts and shift receivers in order to better predict the Gamecocks' true coverage plan.
Parker White is a solid place kicker for this team and should create a push of a match-up with Anders Carlson.
USC offensive coordinator Mike Bobo vs. AU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele
Bobo's mission is to create angles by using a plethora of formations, numerous personnel groupings and near-constant shifting. With the Auburn defense missing its linchpin in the middle, K.J. Britt, Steele must do a great job of preparing the young linebackers to adjust to shifts and get their front adjusted as well. Misalignments and misfits that have harmed AU so far could be fatal if not remedied.
AU right tackle Brodarious Hamm vs. USC defensive end Aaron Sterling
Hamm is a people mover, but struggles with speed rushers off the edge. Auburn must take advantage of the size and strength mismatch; let Hamm drive Sterling around as a run blocker for Tank Bisgby.
AU cornerback Roger McCreary vs USC wideout Shi Smith
Smith has been the lone big-play threat for the ‘Cocks in the passing game. With Auburn struggling to get pass rush with the front four, it will have blitz for pressure. That means man coverage in the secondary. Auburn’s best corner must come up big on big downs against the opposition’s best weapon.
AU tailback Tank Bigsby
Chad Morris has only scratched the surface on the star freshman's true ability; coaches continue to learn what all he can do and find the most effective ways to do it. While I think Muschamp and Robinson will scheme to take it out of Bigsby’s hands, he’s too gifted of a runner not to get his with the appropriate amount of touches.
AU safety Jamien Sherwood
Auburn's best defensive player must be big in both run support and covering the tight ends in the intermediate passing game. This week could be a game where Sherwood gets 10 tackles and at least one chance for an interception.
AU defensive end Colby Wooden
The Gamecocks are mess at right tackle right now. Unless they move their best guard to that spot, this is an exploitable matchup. Wooden has been playing well and could have a breakout performance against an ill-prepared, first-time starter.
Muschamp will have this Auburn team scouted well. They’ll force the ball into the so-far pedestrian hands of Bo Nix and try to limit Bigsby in the run game. These big corners won’t let Nix get away with lofting 50/50 balls to his receivers. South Carolina is excellent at third-down defense; Auburn currently is bad at third-down offense. The kicking games will be vital as red-zone points won’t come easily, but yards between the 20s might.
Auburn’s weaknesses are up front. South Carolina’s strengths are not.
Muschamp will come at Malzahn with the same high-intensity mindset he displayed on the Auburn practice field a few years back. This game will be close — most likely decided by turnovers. I think the combination of Bigsby, Nix and Carlson give Auburn just enough points to pull off a road win in Columbia.
Auburn 19, South Carolina 17
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