Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert is big — 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds — athletic enough to keep himself out of trouble and has a quick trigger on a big arm. Herbert excels at two things when you break him down:
• He quickly identifies coverages and gets the ball out quick into the voids submitted by the defense.
• He distributes the ball well to a plethora of different targets. He’ll utilize all his receivers through his progression, incorporate his running back into the passing game frequently and push the ball to his tight ends in the seams. Herbert makes the offense hard to defend.
CJ Verdell is the bell-cow back for this Oregon squad. Much like some his predecessors like Jonathan Stewart and Royce Freeman, he’s a legitimate dual-threat running back. Verdell rushed for 1,018 yards last season and had more than 300 yards receiving — the only player in the nation to do so. He’s a compact dynamo with quick feet and powerful leg drive. The No. 2 running back, Travis Dye, is a lighter and quicker back that makes hay cutting back on zone scheme runs — to the tune of 739 yards last season.
Oregon graduated its best receiver Dillon Mitchell. Their prize freshman receiver, Mycah Pittman, is out for the next six to eight weeks, and their perimeter Swiss-Army Knife Brenden Schooler is out for the foreseeable future. However, the Ducks still have substantial receiving options. Penn State graduate transfer Juwan Johnson is built like the prototype vertical threat with tremendous size and speed. Slot receiver Jaylon Redd caught 38 balls last season and will be one of Herbert’s primary RPO targets. The best thing the Ducks have going in the passing game, however, is a dynamic set of tight ends. Junior Cam McCormick and senior Jacob Breeland are both athletic, 6-foot-5 tight ends with NFL futures. Breeland is closing in on 1,000 career receiving yards.
Oregon’s overall strength is undoubtably its offensive line. The Ducks are the only team in the nation with two players on the offensive line that have started at least 30 consecutive games; guard Shane Lemieux and tackle Calvin Throckmorton. Both are flawless technicians who are crafty with their hands and perfect with their footwork. They won’t beat you with power, but they’ll overwhelm you with mechanical perfection. Left tackle Penei Sewell is a behemoth who graded out as one of the nation’s best pass protectors last season. You add senior center Jake Hanson and senior Alabama transfer Dallas Warmack (who started every game for the Ducks last season) and the Ducks field a seriously strong offensive line.
Oregon’s new defense under first-year coordinator Andy Avalos is built on pressure and multiplicity. Throughout his time at Boise State, Avalos’ defenses were renown for creating sacks and takeaways. His teams do so by creating confusion up front with variable defensive alignments that isolate great athletes rushing on the edge and crafting specific stunts and pressures to attack the specific formation tendencies of the offenses they are playing.
It’s often a gamble, but it creates a lot of long fields and turnovers.
The Ducks will utilize three conventional defensive linemen in their base sets and are broadcasting what they believe to be stellar depth in their two-deep up front. Defensive end Austin Faoliu is the most productive of the bunch and is tough to move from playing mostly a “4i” technique. Miniature man mountain Jordon Scott poses a tough challenge for any center to move at 325 pounds from at the nose spot. Sione Kava and Gus Cumberlander are intriguing options because they're quite long (6-foot-7) and can vertically challenge throwing lanes and broadly expand across gaps using their length to thwart blockers.
“Stud” linebacker La’Mar Winston Jr. often will align down in a "5" technique alignment, thereby morphing the defense into a four-man front. Oregon may get the most disruptive impact from two new players in the defensive box this season. Miami transfer DJ Johnson is 6-foot-5 and 270 pounds and freaky athletic. Avalos has used him at two different linebacker spots as well as defensive end throughout camp. He probably has the most locker room hype of any player on the squad. He’s followed closely by freshman phenom Kayvon Thibodeaux, the nation’s No. 1 overall defensive recruit. Thibodeaux will play both Stud and defensive end, expectedly opposite Johnson on passing downs in a four-man front, nickel look.
Linebacker Troy Dye mans the middle and is an Oregon defensive institution. He’s the nation’s active leading tackler and has started every game for the last three seasons. Dye excels most in inside-out pursuit limiting outside runs, screens and quick passes to the flats. He uses his length very well do attack footballs in the air and has a quick first step that makes him an effective blitzer.
Dye was a potential first-round NFL draft pick had he left after his junior season.
The Ducks’ secondary gave up substantial yardage on several occasions last season but were very effective in taking the ball away. They were one of two teams to have four players with three or more interceptions and three of those players return; cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Thomas Graham Jr. and safety Jevon Holland. The veteran secondary will again have many chances for takeaways but will be challenged to play more man coverage in Avalos’s aggressive scheme.
That could yield an equal number of busts and booms.
Auburn’s veteran safeties versus Oregon’s tight end duo…
Daniel Thomas and Jeremiah Dinson will need to be at their savvy veteran bests this weekend. If they can limit the tight ends in the passing game and run fit the alley/perimeter effectively, Auburn’s probability of winning goes up substantially. They’ll have to be decisive and react quickly to vertical seam routes happening with run reads in front of them — and they’ll have to be true to their perimeter tracking angles in the screen and outside run game.
Auburn’s H-Back (whomever it may be) versus Oregon LB Troy Dye…
Dye is the unquestioned keystone of the Oregon defense. He diagnoses OL steps quickly and flows to gaps before ball carriers get there. He has great length and separates from blockers very well. Auburn has two potential impact players here in Jay-Jay Wilson and John Samuel Shenker. Wilson is fast-twitch and athletic and can match Dye’s quickness which could be huge on runs where AU is trying to get to the edge and need to stem Dye’s flow. Shenker is big and powerful and could be used folding back inside on isolation runs. That could allow him to overwhelm the tall and lanky Dye at the point of attack.
• Boobee Whitlow is primed to have a big game. I’d wager he’s in the 150-yard range at days end. There will be some uncertainty with a freshman QB, so what do you do? You lean on your RB1.
• Auburn outside linebackers Zakoby McClain and Owen Pappoe offer premium speed at the position; Oregon is an east-west offense that wants to stretch the field horizontally to create seams vertically. Linebackers that run like safeties can take away a lot of that lateral space.
When you have a defense that wants to be multiple and attack you with different fronts creating different pressure angles, you combat them with their own strategy.
You formation them to death.
By adding extra gaps to the blocking surface using tight-end and wing combinations — bunch trips, condensed receiver stacks — you challenge the rules and angles of the defense. The net effect is you dictate how they can safely align. I would speculate that Auburn has watched plenty of Avalos’ defense and won’t go in with basic 10- and 20- personnel concepts. Forcing those edge players to play inside of tight ends and wings who can down block on them (unbalanced sets) makes them uncomfortable and less effective. It also creates better blocking angles on Dye, thereby cutting down on his ability to run down plays off tackle.
Herbert shredded true zone coverage for the most part last season, but he struggled against man coverage. He was completely vexed by Michigan State’s press quarters concept in the bowl game. The Spartans delayed those receiver releases and didn't make any space immediately evident, which undermined the Ducks' passing game in a big way. No doubt Kevin Steele is aware of this; I’d expect Auburn to blend a lot of tight match zone concepts and some press man coverage — even simultaneously in some split-field looks.
Being able to get pressure with just the down four defensive linemen and keep linebackers in second-level coverage could be a huge factor.
Oregon was very dynamic last season — averaging 38 points per game during the regular season. Herbert has No. 1 Overall draft potential and Avalos’ defense will give the Auburn OL and freshman quarterback(s) some problems.
Conversely, Oregon played two teams with solid defensive lines last season — Utah and Michigan State. Both of those teams were successful against the Ducks. They're not ready for the savage front they are about to see.
Their offensive line is good, but not SEC elite strong at the point of attack like they need to be to thwart Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson and company. Auburn’s OL will get movement inside and get Whitlow going.
I’m going to bet on Malzahn doing what he does (did) best by challenging Oregon’s defensive principles with formations, alignments and tempo. Auburn puts some worry in some other souls across the land this weekend with a statement win.
AU 31, Oregon 20
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