What should you expect from the 2020 incarnation of the Auburn Tigers?
It’s hard to say at this point.
Will this weekend be the Lane Train against the Train Wreck? Or will this be a week where an improving and driven Auburn team uses a re-imagined, physical approach to pound an SEC opponent into submission?
Trends aren't working in the Tigers’ favor. Ole Miss is reportedly suffering through a severe team COVID-19 situation this week, though details are scarce. Any personnel losses (due to quarantine) could hamstring the explosive Rebels.
Quarterback Matt Corral is a mobile gunslinger averaging more than 300 yards and three passing touchdowns per game. He can push the ball down the field vertically as well as anyone in football. He also has a quick release and executes run-pass options at a rate of speed that puts defenders in tremendous conflict.
Outside of the Arkansas disaster last weekend, he has looked elite. The Hogs gave him trouble on long-yardage downs by sitting in a zone dropping seven to eight defenders. They also effectively mixed in man-under coverage.
Reserve John Rhys Plumlee is a wild card with elite speed who can come in and create an entirely different look for opponents, but it's a one-dimensional look.
Running back Jerrion Ealy is one of the most dangerous big-play threats in college football with his acceleration. He's strong enough to break arm tackles and gets to top speed as fast as any back in college football, which means he gets 25 to 30 yards where a lot of good backs would get 10 or fewer. Ealy also is exceptionally dangerous in the screen game; his speed forces linebackers to attack run reads with urgency and thus enhances the RPO passing game for Corral.
Snoop Conner is the team’s bigger back. He's the focus on short-yardage downs.
Temple graduate transfer Kenny Yeboah has been a breakout star for the Rebels. He's essentially a big-bodied, long-armed slot receiver that can physically overwhelm linebackers and safeties. He’s most dangerous on the Y-Seam concept from play action and RPOs. He will also be isolated outside against cornerbacks in red-zone situations — much the same way Auburn used C.J. Uzomah.
Elijah Moore is the Rebels’ primary receiving threat working mostly from the slot and attacking defenses with slot fade, slant, dig and corner routes. He’s also a run-after-catch menace on fast screens. Moore isn’t big, but he plays bigger — much like South Carolina’s Shi Smith — and could give Auburn the same kind of problems. Johnathan Mingo provides a big, possession target on the perimeter who can also can win contested balls one-on-one.
The Ole Miss offensive line does two things well — it engages quickly in pass-protection concepts and moves well laterally in zone blocking schemes to create seams for Ealy. This group isn't big or extremely physical, but its abilities and execution match the Rebels' scheme well. Center Ben Brown is a multi-year starter and this group's leader.
Running a hybridized stack/4-2-5, the Rebels' defense boasts a long and athletic front.
They're significantly taller than average at three of the front four positions. Nose tackle and Eufaula native KD Hill is a 320-pound fire plug of a man, but plays lighter than he is. He’ll rotate with 320-pound Wetumpka (Ala.) High graduate Patrick Lucas Jr.
Edge defender/BUCK Tavius Robinson is the team’s most athletic front man and most gifted pass rusher. He also uses his 6-7 frame well to disrupt throwing lanes. The entire front moves well laterally and pursues hard down the line, though they haven’t held their ground with any vigor against any vertical run games so far this season.
The linebacking corps is athletic — albeit built on transfers. Will linebacker Lakia Henry is the team’s most physical and most productive tackler. Star/Nickel Daylen Gill is a solid space player, but is challenged to consistently set the edge against outside runs.
The secondary mirrors the linebacking corps in the sense that its loaded with transfers and athletes. The safety duo of Jon Haynes and Jaylen Jones offers plenty of range and fluidity. They will make plays characteristic of elite playmakers, yet suffer assignment lapses you'd expect from much younger players. Cornerback Keidron Smith is another big corner that will travel with teams’ best receiver — much the way Jaycee Horn did for South Carolina last weekend.
Senior place kicker Luke Logan is experienced. He's also inconsistent. Special teams is an area where Auburn could have a strong advantage — as long as it maintains touchback distance on kickoffs and doesn't give Ealy a shot at a long return.
Auburn's OL vs. Ole Miss' DL
This matchup favors Auburn, as did last week’s matchup and the Arkansas game as well. Auburn must win the line of scrimmage in the run game and let Bigsby and Williams churn out yardage. They can dictate tempo.
Auburn nickel Christian Tutt vs. Ole Miss TE Kenny Yeboah
The big guy one of the Rebels' key weapons. He won’t be able to outrun Tutt like a slot receiver, but he can box him out like a power forward. Tutt must be physical, attack Yeboah when he’s asked to block and receive some safety help up top when the Rebels attack the seam.
Auburn RB Tank Bigsby
With a commitment to the running game, Auburn could control this game from start to finish with the boost coming from the freshman superstar-to-be. Bigsby could very well get 200 yards this weekend. Auburn must expand the surface of the line of scrimmage with tight ends and H backs and create some downward blocking angles. Those will allow Tank to make decisive reads and get moving downhill.
Ole Miss QB Matt Corral
Auburn's lack of pass rush and dependency on blitzes could spell trouble for the Auburn defense. Corral distributes the ball well and has a cast of targets that can pile up points and yards. If Auburn doesn’t control the clock and the tempo with the run game, and this defense has to play 90-ish snaps, the Tigers could be in big trouble.
Bo Nix was bad last week, but that’s rhetorical at this point. If I hadn’t watched Corral throw six picks against Arkansas last week I’d be fully convinced that Ole Miss would sting Auburn in this one. I think (much to the Bunker’s dismay) you will see a more vintage Malzahn offensive game plan, which sets up well this week, and that Auburn will pile up enough rushing yards and time of possession that Ole Miss will press too much on offense. Auburn gets a big day from Bigsby (and some from D.J. Williams) combined with a few key takeaways en route to another SEC win.
Auburn 34, Ole Miss 30
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