Auburn's early FPI projections

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Published May 5, 2020

Auburn's early FPI projections

Nathan King • AuburnSports

Staff

@byNathanKing

Another year, another grin-and-bear-it schedule for Auburn.

The Tigers' 2020 slate isn't the toughest of the Gus Malzahn era, but it's not a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination, with a lethal SEC road schedule against College Football Playoff hopefuls Alabama and Georgia, as well as Miss State and Ole Miss, both with fiery new coaching staffs looking to make waves in Year 1. Then there's the Week 2 neutral-siter against resurgent North Carolina, and home contests versus the defending national champs, LSU, and the always pesky Texas A&M.

Auburn's preseason projections aren't hurting because of it, though. Whenever and however the 2020 football season starts, Auburn has been viewed in recent way-too-early Top 25s as a consistent top-10 or top-15 squad, thanks to its mixture of a high-ceiling offense with Bo Nix and an ever-consistent defense on the other side.

In ESPN's May 1 update of its Football Power Index rankings, Auburn clocked in at No. 9.

Its projected record of 9-3 is less than a handful of double-digit win predictions in the rankings behind it. That's nothing unusual for a Malzahn team, which is usually forgiven for its difficult schedules.

As shown in the grids that follow, there's a big drop off from the top three teams' overall FPI scores to No. 4's, and the No. 1 team in the country is given a wildly higher chance to make the 2020 College Football Playoff than all the other contenders.

May 2020 ESPN FPI Top 25 projections

Team	FPI score	Projected W/L

No. 1 Clemson	32.6	12-0
No. 2 Ohio State	30.0	11-1
No. 3 Alabama	29.0	11-1
No. 4 Wisconsin	23.7	11-1
No. 5 Georgia	23.7	10-2
No. 6 LSU	23.7	10-2
No. 7 Penn State	23.3	10-2
No. 8 Oregon	21.3	10-2
No. 9 Auburn	20.7	9-3
No. 10 Oklahoma	20.1	10-2
No. 11 Texas	19.6	9-3
No. 12 Florida	19.2	9-3
No. 13 USC	17.9	9-3
No. 14 UCF	17.3	11-1
No. 15 Texas A&M	16.7	9-3
No. 16 Notre Dame	15.4	8-4
No. 17 Oklahoma State	13.7	8-4
No. 18 Virginia Tech	13.0	9-3
No. 19 Michigan	12.9	7-5
No. 20 Louisville	12.9	8-4
No. 21 TCU	12.0	7-5
No. 22 Iowa	11.8	7-5
No. 23 Indiana	11.5	8-4
No. 24 Utah	11.2	8-4
No. 25 Northwestern	11.0	8-4

May 2020 ESPN FPI CFP projections

Team	% make Playoff	% make title game	% win national title

Clemson	81.1	54.6	35.6
Ohio State	63.8	38.3	20.6
Alabama	58.7	33.6	17.2
Wisconsin	33.5	14.4	5.5
Georgia	25.7	10.9	4.7
LSU	23.7	10.2	4.2
Penn State	23.2	9.5	3.5
Oregon	22.4	8.0	2.5
Oklahoma	15.3	5.0	1.7
Texas	10.4	3.3	1.0

Auburn sits just outside the top 10 most likely Playoff teams at No. 11, being given a 10% chance to make the four-team field, a 3.3% chance to win a game and a 1.2% chance to win the whole thing.

According to ESPN's analytics, Auburn has the third-highest chance to win the SEC West, behind Alabama and LSU, and the fourth-highest chance to win the conference next season, behind Alabama, LSU and Georgia.

The rankings extend to all 130 FBS teams — from Clemson and Ohio State to UTEP and UMass — and the FPI predictors are already up and running for every game this coming season, based on thousands of computer simulations of any given matchup.

Here's how the FPI thinks Auburn will get to 9-3 next season.

ESPN FPI projections for Auburn's 2020 schedule

*: Game to be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Team	Opponent FPI rank	Auburn % chance to win

Week 1 vs. Alcorn State	NR (FCS team)	99.8
Week 2 vs. North Carolina*	No. 29	79.7
Week 3 @ Ole Miss	No. 38	79.7
Week 4 vs. Southern Miss	No. 90	96.7
Week 5 vs. Kentucky	No. 33	86.7
Week 6 @ Georgia	No. 5	33.6
Week 7 vs. Texas A&M	No. 15	70.5
Week 9 @ Mississippi State	No. 72	91.9
Week 10 vs. Arkansas	No. 59	93.9
Week 11 vs. UMass	No. 130	99.9
Week 12 vs. LSU	No. 6	49.7
Week 13 @ Alabama	No. 3	21.1

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