Will Auburn's offense truly evolve this fall? Only one man knows.
HOOVER | It all starts now.
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Auburn's turn through the Southeastern Conference Media Days phantasmagoria begins Thursday morning, which provides the first tangible step toward the Tigers' 2017 season. Sure, spring ball happened. Sure, players have been working hard in the weight room, watching film, using their down time to make a difference with a mission trip to the Dominican Republic.
Still, the moment Gus Malzahn takes the podium in Hoover means it's real. The season's almost here.
And this is going to be one hell of a season — one way or the other.
There are a few good reasons to believe Auburn will be better this fall, mostly the mere presence of quarterback Jarrett Stidham and new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, and those reasons make Auburn appetizing to prognosticators. The hype train is on its way. Believe that.
Hype isn't reality, though. This will be a tell-tale season because Malzahn is under pressure. Auburn doesn't like to talk about it, but the truth is out there. Hidden behind the Sugar Bowl appearance was a generally disappointing 8-win season that will be remembered for the Clemson loss, the bizarre Wing-T dalliance (also known as "Cox Cat"), the mesmerizingly misunderstood injury to Sean White at Georgia and Kam Pettway leading the league in rushing.
Only one of those things is positive.
Malzahn has lost his last three games to Georgia. Malzahn has lost his last three games to Alabama. He's won three of his last 13 games against ranked opponents.
None of that matters right now because optimism reigns supreme this time of year. Auburn will be a darling in the eyes of many reporters and coaches when the time comes to fill out preseason ballots in Hoover. This was a solid team in 2016 — felled mostly by an offense that lacked much in the way of passing — and now has filled its biggest personnel problem with the best available player. The Tigers have a reputation for being good every few years. Is it all coming together? A lot of people see it that way.
Malzahn sees it that way as well, though his logic probably doesn't match yours. He thought last year's team was better than 8-5. He thinks another round of bad injury luck with Sean White once again put the offense in a bind from which it could not extricate itself.
Hey, our quarterback is hurt. What can I do?
There's a long answer to that question. There's also a short one: Malzahn and former coordinator Rhett Lashlee are at fault for Auburn not having a proper Plan B behind (or Co-Plan A alongside) Sean White. A series of recruiting losses created that vacuum.
A short-term solution has emerged in Stidham, whose strong, accurate arm and quick reactions match perfectly with Lindsey's run-pass option paradigm. The irony is that Lashlee, in his final contribution before behind shuttled off to University of Connecticut, was the Tigers' primary liaison to Stidham. His diligence made the difference.
What a twist.
With Stidham in tow and Pettway back and most of the offensive line back and another year of maturation for the Tigers' remarkable collection of talent at wideout, scoring shouldn't be a problem this fall. That's the thinking. Plus, Auburn's defense looked competent during Kevin Steele's first season as defensive coordinator. He didn't lose too much. Put it all together and, well, it's easy to see why people view Auburn as a ascending ballclub.
There's a hitch. There's always a hitch.
Malzahn, to this point, has said all the right things about Lindsey. He says Lindsey has a whole bunch of autonomy and basically carte blanche to install things from a strategic perspective. The new coordinator has maximized that dominion; Auburn's RPO overlay (now supplementing Malzahn's core run concepts) will give the offense a much different feel. The days of running the football 70 percent of the time are gone. There will be passing. Much more passing. Much more balance — at least in theory.
That's the hitch: Theory. Malzahn climbed his way from complete anonymity in Arkansas to coaching for a national title all in the span of eight years. He made that jump because his offense was advantageous, he knew how to retool it in real time when defenses gained an upper hand. He called the plays. He always called the plays. It was his system, his vision, his ideas, his entire professional life.
Now we're to believe Malzahn will cede control to coordinator with exactly one season of major-college experience?
That task is easy when Auburn leads by 28 points in the first half. Or even a couple touchdowns. That task is excruciatingly difficult when Auburn is down two touchdowns on the road. Two empty drives turns into four. What is Malzahn going to do? He'll have something to say, no doubt, but will those words be suggestions or will they be play calls?
I'm just not sure. And until I'm sure, I cannot get a good feel for where this team is headed.
We watched an Auburn program with similar talent and a new coordinator flop in 2003. We watched a similarly talented team with another new coordinator take college football by storm in 2004. It can go both ways. The optimists look at Stidham and Lindsey and Steele and they see a green arrow up.
People who know Malzahn wonder if he actually can let Lindsey pull this offense closer to greatness.
What's been happening these past few years hasn't been working. Going 0-for-6 in Amen Corner isn't good enough. It's not even close to good enough. It's gotten to a point where a Georgia tailback realistically can envision a November day in the not-too-distant future where he consummates a career sweep of the Tigers.
Malzahn doesn't feel the building pressure in a traditional manner because he believes he's got the antidote. He holds a solution to his team's problem. A strong season in 2017 — one that yields at least one Amen Corner victory in addition to 10 wins — likely will erase many doubts about Malzahn's seaworthiness. A great season — one that includes an Amen Corner sweep plus a trip to Atlanta — will erase all doubts.
Getting there is much easier said that done.
The talking begins Thursday morning. Then comes the work.