Of all the words I’d have predicted over the summer that might describe the unique 2020 schedule, “familiar” wouldn't have made my list.
And yet, here we are. At least as far as Auburn is concerned, the past was prologue.
Offense that fades out over the course of games? Check.
Defense that gets worn out from staying on the field and has issues in coverage? Check.
Second-year quarterback playing worse than the previous season? Check.
Losses to teams Auburn hasn’t lost to in generations? Check.
All of a sudden, 2020 looks a lot like 2015 or 2016 — just with fewer butts in the seats. The loss at South Carolina was a lot more competitive than the loss at Georgia. That's the positive side.
South Carolina also is a much worse football team than Georgia, so simply playing them close offers little comfort. The familiar (there it is again) failures just keep repeating themselves.
Spotty, too cute play-calling is still very much a thing and it doesn’t seem to matter whether Gus Malzahn or Chad Morris is making the calls. Either way, stuff is getting signaled in that, after the initial script, doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The Malzahn Third Quarter Slump is a real thing. I must assume that Gus and/or Morris (again, this happens with both guys) either cannot anticipate a defense’s halftime adjustments or figures the opposing coaches are just as stubborn as he is when it comes to game plans.
For whatever the reason, Auburn folding its offensive tents for most of the third period is becoming as predictable as losing to SEC East teams. Keep in mind that if not for the Kentucky win in the 2020 opener, Malzahn would have lost every game Auburn has played against the conference’s lesser division since beating Georgia in November 2017.
And once again, a long stretch of offensive ineptitude opened the door to leaving the defense out on the field too long, blowing a lead and losing a game. Lather, rinse, repeat.
As if his horrific records against Auburn’s major rivals wasn’t bad enough, this week Malzahn completed the sorry trifecta of blowing all of Auburn’s long-term winning streaks against SEC East teams. After having botched a 17-year run against Florida last season and a 19-year run against Tennessee the year before that, Gus topped himself by losing to South Carolina for only the second time in the two schools’ histories.
Nearing the midpoint of Malzahn’s eighth season as head coach, his boundaries are familiar. There's that word again.
Every three or four years he’ll manage to get it together and have a pretty good offense for about nine games. In the other years he’ll get by, eking out some close wins in games that shouldn’t be close, losing two or three games in cringe-inducing fashion and getting blown out in a couple more.
The reality is that he’ll probably beat somebody he’s not supposed to before this season ends (although at this point it’s hard to see many remaining games where AU could be reasonably considered a favorite), but even in a 10-game season, the same familiar limits still apply.
What we have here is a slightly better than average football coach who produces slightly better than average teams most of the time — and slightly worse than average teams the rest of the time.
Don’t look so surprised that we got the latter version this year. It’s 2020, for Shug’s sake.
And the other reality, one that everybody ought to see, is that he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Not this year. Not next year, either.
Thanks to ex-president Steven Leath, the last man to unite all of Auburn’s factions — in determining that they couldn’t stand him — getting taken to the cleaners by Jimmy Sexton three years ago, there’s no way Auburn is going to fire Malzahn in 2020, and most likely not in 2021. The numbers involved far exceed the annual budgets for most of the teams the athletic department supports.
There’s no white knight who’s going to ride in with a $20 million check to change that and Auburn’s weak leadership at the administrative, trustee and booster levels has no plan to speak of, other than muddle through.
This is just how it is. You don’t have to like it. I certainly don’t. But most especially in a year when revenues are severely constrained, a coaching change just isn’t going to happen.
So get ready for more very familiar football. That brand of football and the man behind it will be around for a while yet.