Ahead of Auburn's matchup with Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl, our Christian Clemente chatted with Louie Vaccher of WildcatReport.com. Dive in for his assessment of the Tigers-Wildcats matchup and how he sees things shaking out Friday in the season finale.
CC: On the offensive side of the ball, what do the Wildcats need to focus on to beat Auburn?
LV: Northwestern’s offense has had its share of ups-and-downs this season. They haven’t been very efficient, but they’ve been able to score enough points to win six of eight games. The Wildcats’ biggest issue this season has been the lack of a consistent running game. They put up 325 yards rushing in the season opener against Maryland and an astounding 411 against Illinois is the regular-season finale. But in the other six games, they failed to gain 150 yards even once and ran for 105 or less four times.
So I expect the Wildcats to rely on Ramsey and use the short passing game to move the sticks and control the clock. Northwestern likes to run crossing patterns, rub routes and screens to try to get the ball to receivers in space. They don’t really have a deep threat that scares you, but they have some veteran possession receivers that know how to get open, and an experienced quarterback in Peyton Ramsey who can get the ball into their hands. They will run enough to keep Auburn’s defense honest, and look for them to run quite a bit with the quarterback, whether it’s Ramsey or tailback Cameron Porter running out of the Wildcat formation.
CC: Who are some of the key players to look out for on offense?
LV: Ramsey is really the guy that has made this offense go this season. His numbers aren’t anything special, but he’s smart, he’s poised under pressure and he seems to be at his best on third downs and in the red zone, when they really need him. This is a guy who has thrown for more than 8,000 yards and 51 TDs in his career (three years at Indiana and one at Northwestern).
Ramsey’s favorite target this year has been Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, who has had a fantastic senior season, leading Northwestern in catches (38) yards (447) and touchdowns (4). Tight end John Raine, another grad transfer, has also been a weapon in the passing game for the Wildcats.
The aforementioned Porter, a true freshman, has suddenly emerged the last couple games as the Wildcats feature back. He’s a downhill runner with some speed who has carried the ball 40 times for 203 yards and three TDs in the last two games. Expect him to get the lion’s share of carries. Evan Hull will also get some playing time, but the other two of NU’s top four running backs – Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser – both announced their intention to transfer and will not play.
CC: The Northwestern defense has been suffocating all season long. What's made that defense so strong?
LV: Head coach Pat Fitzgerald likes to say that the defense’s success begins and ends with defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz, who is retiring after this game after 51 years as a college coach. It’s not very sexy, but the Wildcats are fundamentally sound, they don’t make mistakes and they make you earn everything you get. They play a lot of Cover-4 on the back end to take away the long pass over the top, and they try to keep everything in front of them and tackle well. Northwestern has had good defenses for the last few years, but what sets this one apart is that this unit has taken the ball away. They have created 18 turnovers in eight games, including 14 interceptions.
The strength of the unit is the linebacker corps. Middle linebacker Paddy Fisher is a four-year starter who is flanked by Blake Gallagher and Chris Bergin, three seniors who have a combined 932 tackles. Northwestern is the only program in the nation with three linebackers who each have more than 200 career tackles.
CC: Who's an X-Factor or two on the defensive side of the ball that can change the game for the Wildcats?
LV: Redshirt freshman Brandon Joseph was just named a first-team AP All-American and has been a real difference maker for the Wildcats. He has six interceptions this year, which is tied for the most in America. He is an athletic ballhawk with a nose for the ball. He made a spectacular play against Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, picking off Justin Fields in the end zone with a leaping one-hand stab.
The other guy is Fisher, whom I’ve already mentioned. He has more career tackles (392) and forced fumbles (11) than any player in America. At 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, Fisher has the strength to play between the tackles, and while he doesn’t have great straight-ahead speed, he has the instincts that enable him to make plays sideline to sideline. He will be playing on Sundays next season.
I would have normally mentioned Greg Newsome II, too, but the first-team All-Big Ten cornerback suffered a groin injury in the Big Ten championship game and will not play in the Citrus Bowl. He has also declared for the NFL Draft, so he has played his last game for the Wildcats.
CC: Game prediction? Who wins and why?
LV: Northwestern is going to be a little shorthanded in this one. The Wildcats had seven players announce their intention to transfer in the last two weeks, including their second-leading receiver (Kyric McGowan) and leading sacker (Eku Leota). Newsome, their best cover corner, will be sidelined, too.
Northwestern’s defense has been outstanding all season and I expect them to play well against the Tigers. Auburn has some weapons in Tank Bigsby (if he plays), Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz, and I expect those guys to make some plays. I think this one is going to come down to the play of the offense, and Ramsey in particular. There is some hope that the Wildcats will be able to get some production from the running game in Orlando, but that remains to be seen; the game will probably rest on the shoulders of Ramsey. He played an outstanding first half against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and Northwestern led 10-6 at the break. But then he turned the ball over three times in the second half (two INTs and a fumble), and the Wildcats eventually succumbed to the heavily favored Buckeyes, 22-10. Northwestern can’t lose the turnover battle against Auburn and expect to win.
I think the offense will do just enough to squeak by and the defense will come up with a big play or two and send Hankwitz into retirement with the 400th victory of his career. I’ll call it Northwestern 24 Auburn 20.
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