AUBURN — Bruce Pearl is honest about his team's chances from game to game.
When it's a road contest against N.C. State or LSU, Pearl admits the team will have to play a perfect game to win. When it's a neutral-site matchup against Duke, Pearl points out how long the odds will be against one of the top teams in America. When it's a home loss to Kentucky, Pearl doesn't seem stunned, but he concedes his team has to start the second half better.
So when Auburn (17-8, 6-6 SEC) gets a home test against Arkansas (14-11, 5-7 SEC), Pearl acknowledges it as a must-win.
"This is a real key game for us," Pearl said. "You have to get the ones you can get in this league."
It all goes back to the most recent game in Auburn Arena.
Letting one get away against Ole Miss last Wednesday made a noticeable shift in the SEC standings. Instead of being two games above .500 in conference play, the Tigers fell to .500. Instead of creeping up toward the top of the table, the Tigers fell back down to the middle of the pack.
Pearl pointed to these middle-tier SEC games as ones Auburn has to have at this point in the season. Arkansas, an NCAA tournament bubble team, is next up.
"You know, last Wednesday when we played Ole Miss, the difference between the win and the loss is very, very significant. A win over Ole Miss last week and we’re in fourth place in the league. And a loss to Arkansas tomorrow and we’re tied for, you know, eighth or something like that, or ninth," Pearl said. "So there’s a huge, huge swing right now, playing against these teams that are in the middle of our league."
Arkansas provides what has been Auburn's Achilles heel this season — a dominant big man.
Daniel Gafford is as good as it gets in the SEC.
An all-freshman team member a season ago, Gafford's usage rate and production level have increased in Year 2. He's averaging 16.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, shooting 66 percent from the floor. As a rim protector, his numbers are down a bit from last year, but still averages nearly two blocks per contest.
It's the same recipe as much of this season: The closer-to-full-health Austin Wiley, Horace Spencer and Anfernee McLemore will have to serve as a rotating cast to counterbalance Gafford's productivity.
"They’ve got the most dominating big guy in the league in Daniel Gafford, so they present a real threat," Pearl said. "Gafford has different kind of length. He’s anywhere near the basket, he’s gonna jump over you. You know when Gafford has different kind of length? When he’s able to demonstrate that against LSU or Mississippi State or teams that you know are really big and long and then all of a sudden he’s out there and longer. He’s much bigger than us. But we’ve got Horace, Anfernee and Austin, all there centers. They’ll all bang him, all work him. So, I think the domination for Austin will be finishing around the basket. Being more physical presence at the rim."
Outside of the post, it will be a fast-paced, back-and-forth — as Pearl calls it, "helter skelter."
Arkansas' response to Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are Mason Jones and Isaiah Joe. The Razorbacks' tandem isn't the consistent scoring threat Harper and Brown have grown to be, but with the up-and-down pace, expect Jones and Joe to get their opportunities.
"Every year I’ve played Arkansas it’s been a fast-paced, high-scoring game, so I’m definitely looking forward to playing Arkansas," Bryce Brown said. "It’s always been a fun game, always been a fun matchup and has always been a good, interesting matchup, so definitely looking forward to it.”
As for Joe, averaging 13.8 points per game in his first year, Pearl issued some of his most pronounced praise of the season.
"Isiah Joe, No. 1 for Arkansas, is probably the best shooting guard as a freshman that this league has seen in a long, long time," Pearl said. "He would rival any freshman as far as his ability to shoot the basketball that this league has seen."
