The next chapter of Auburn 2018 season begins with the Malzahn Bowl against a worse-for-wear Arkansas team, now coached by one of Malzahn's best chums: Chad Morris. Both sides will be more than slightly familiar with one another’s offensive scheme.
Arkansas will base out of an '11' personnel offensive scheme; one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. The tight end will move around and often function like an H-back in several run schemes. Arkansas will show Auburn a lot of familiar artillery — running the power, counter and buck sweep run schemes. It also will employ the zone read-bubble screen.
In the wake of an inexplicable, lopsided loss to North Texas, Arkansas has declared Ty Storey the starting quarterback. The junior is a solid all-around athlete, having earned all-state honors in three sports in high school. Storey excelled in a true spread offense in high school, but has very limited experience, having gotten his first collegiate start just two weeks ago.
Arkansas plays with a committee of running backs, all of ample SEC stature. Devwah Whaley has the most touches so far and is the preferred choice for the power and counter schemes. Chase Hayden is the most explosive of the backs in terms of ability, gets most of the sweeps and outside zones, but has managed only 79 yards on 20 carries this year. He led all SEC freshman rushers in touchdowns last season.
Jonathan Nance is one of the hidden gems of the conference. He has reliable hands, good deep speed and runs good routes. He led the Razorbacks in almost all receiving categories last season; interestingly he only has two receptions in 2018. Bigger-bodied wide receivers Jared Cornelius (who is built like a running back) and La’Michael Pettway flank Nance and are off to solid starts. Pettway, who excels at catching back-shoulder throws and contested hitches, leads the team with 11 receptions for 173 yards. Austin Cantrell mans the tight end/H-back spot. He’s not a big-play threat, but did catch at least one pass in eight different games last season.
This incarnation of the Arkansas offensive line is an unbalanced blend of Bret Bielema’s leftover hogs and players better suited for Morris’s up-tempo demands. Senior center Hjalte Froholdt is the centerpiece and one heck of a player. He’s an NFL starting quality interior offensive lineman. Right tackle Brian Wallace is one of the hold-over big boys — 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds. He’s well-regarded enough to have earned preseason third-team ALL-SEC honors at his position.
The Arkansas defense is an amalgam of several defensive coordinators — each with a different vision and a different opinion regarding personnel. This program has several good players, but they don’t all necessarily fit into place in veteran defensive coordinator John “Chief” Chavis’ 4-3 scheme.
The Razorbacks use four down linemen in true Chavis fashion — a shaded nose with a three-tech tackle and two five-tech ends. Senior tackle Armon Watts is the most capable and disruptive defensive linemen. McTelvin Agim has grown into a 280-pound strong-side end and paced the defensive front in tackles last season. He’s strong against kick-out blocks and pullers. He also is a better pass rusher than his broad frame would suggest.
Middle linebacker De'Jon Harris is another preseason All-SEC honoree. He led the team in total tackles and tackles-for-loss last season. He does his best work at and behind the line of scrimmage. Weak-side linebacker Dre Greenlaw is like a jumbo safety in the box. He runs well and is the team’s most active chase down tackler. Strong-side linebacker Hayden Henry is a first-year starter; he's struggled so far this season holding the edge and making effective run-versus-pass reads.
The secondary will employ two roving safeties who will sink in and out of the box. One of the two, free safety Santos Ramirez, is the SEC’s most notorious head hunter. Kamren Curl is a big corner that runs well vertically and won’t be out-manned by big receivers. They favor Match Quarters defense with the safeties over and reading the inside receivers. Another big corner, D’Vone McClure, is the nickel back.
Kicker Connor Limpert is 5-for-7 with a long of 54 yards. He keeps most kickoffs in the back of the endzone. The Razorbacks haven’t been exceptionally successful in the return game so far and won’t be afforded many opportunities in this game.
• Arkansas has been prone to turnovers in the passing game — against both zone and man coverage. Storey will be facing what should be a hostile and motivated defense; Arkansas will be in trouble if Storey doesn't protect the football.
• North Texas got the edge in the run game often against Chavis’ defense, especially running to the weak side against the smaller defensive end and linebacker. Safeties generally were aligned high. That sets up well for Auburn's counter runs and buck sweeps to the boundary.
• Arkansas also has conceded many yards-after-contact this season. Almost 100 per game, in fact. As hard as Boobee Whitlow has been running, he could have a big game if he sustains his current level of effort.
• The Arkansas defensive line isn’t bad despite the defense’s mediocre performances thus far. A retooled Auburn offensive line may struggle and require a pacy, pass-first approach to gain yardage consistently.
PREDICTION:
This is an early-season crossroads for the Auburn Tigers. History tells us that Malzahn is ready and prepared to get after the Hogs every year. He will need that situational excellence against this season. This game isn’t a beauty pageant nor is it a hot ticket by any means, but there's a lot at stake for Auburn. It's thirsting for some positive momentum. And it needs to quench that thirst at home. I don’t think these Tigers will cover the 30-point spread, but I think the defense responds angrily and the offense will be good enough to take advantage of an out-manned opponent.
Auburn 31, Arkansas 13
