Auburn gearing up to face quality MSU defense

Auburn is all but out of the SEC title race, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty to play for.

The Tigers are widely projected as a four-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and considering Auburn's recent history in five/12 matchups (New Mexico State), Bruce Pearl knows how important it will be for Auburn to hold serve.

"Right now we’re sort of slotted as a four seed in the NCAA Tournament," Pearl said. "And to be in that 4/13, 5/12 block gives you a fighting chance to advance, you’re the best team to go to the Sweet 16. You get a five seed and you run into that 5/12 matchup, that’s a 50/50 matchup."

It certainly won't be easy for Auburn to do so as it faces a Mississippi State team that has won five of its last six and beat the Tigers earlier in the season in Starkville.

"Mississippi State is the third-toughest team to come to Neville Arena this year with Alabama and Kentucky being the two toughest opponents we’ve had based on the NET rankings and Mississippi State is a NET 31, just one slot out of Quad-1," Pearl said. "So we’ll have our (work) cut out for us."

Since Chris Jans arrived in Starkville, the Bulldogs' calling card has been their defense as they ranked No. 7 in adjusted defensive rating last season and are No. 17 this season.

The Bulldogs rank No. 3 in three-point percentage defense holding opponents to 28.5 percent from deep per game.

"Coach Jans has always been known as a great defensive coach and he still is," Pearl said. "Mississippi State’s got great defensive numbers... People shoot 28 percent from three against them because they’re athletic and they close out pretty quickly. They’re not afraid to switch bodies on bodies."

Ever since he arrived in Starkville four years ago, Tolu Smith has been a double-double machine and he's having his best season in his final one.

The super-senior is averaging 17.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting 60.5 percent from the field.

The bulk of Smith's production comes from posting up, which he does on 37.5 percent of his touches. He averages 0.929 points per possession and shoots 53.1 percent from the field when posting up.

Last season, Smith posted a 20 and 10 game in Neville Arena, but this year Auburn held him to nine points and eight rebounds; it's a performance Auburn is hoping to replicate on Saturday.

"If you told me we’d go to Mississippi State and somehow contain Tolu Smith to nine points and eight rebounds, I would’ve told you we’d win that game," Pearl said. "Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell, the team did an outstanding job on Tolu. They really, unselfishly, gave themselves to make his catches really difficult. I’d be really pleased if we could come close to that kind of effort again and give ourselves a chance to win again."

If State isn't running something with Smith then it is likely letting Josh Hubbard cook.

Hubbard is the Bulldogs' leading scorer averaging 15.9 points per game on 55 percent true shooting. Of his 12.9 shots per game that he shoots, 8.1 of them come from behind the arc where he shoots 36.4 percent.

Hubbard takes and makes difficult shots: per Synergy, 65 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes are considered guarded, and on those looks, he is 35-of-86 (40.7 percent) and averages 1.22 points per possession which ranks in the 88th percentile.

Hubbard's first start was against Auburn in which he dropped 17 points on 7-of-16 shooting. He posted 34 points in State's previous game and 32 the game before that.

"Josh Hubbard is the best freshman in the league," Pearl said. "He is Dalton Knecht-dangerous in the way of just being able to get hot, make shots."

The last time the teams met it was a tale of two halves as the first half was a defensive stalemate and the second was a bit of a track meet that ended in a 64-58 Mississippi State.

The biggest difference in that game? Rebonding. The Bulldogs out-rebounded Auburn 42-27 with 12 of them being offensive.

It's something Auburn knows it has to fix in order to win on Saturday.

"I feel like back then we had a lot of defensive breakdowns," Broome said. "All of our guards, we didn't gang rebound like how we supposed (to) in film. That was one of the major things. Besides us missing shots, I feel like there's some things that we could control, like our physicality and our defense, and that's something that we're going to take pride in next game."

Auburn and Mississippi State tipoff at 3 p.m. Ct on ESPN2.